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54 comments on Midweek Open Thread...

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ashaddock on October 20, 2005 - 1:18am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Simmons adds a lot of weight, experience, scholarly approach and credibility to the Peak Oil debate. He mixes extensive research, astute "big picture" observations with a lot of open questions and directional comments.  He has raised hugely important issues.

The use of the word "may" is key his forward-looking comments -  which sometimes end up distorted in the press and appear to be "over the top".

I believe that he senses a "large" role for himself in the evolving energy crisis, much larger than selling his book. I for one am very glad that he is willing to fill that role.  He may yet come to be a person of some historic significance.  I wish him well.

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TI on October 20, 2005 - 2:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I have for some time wondered what was Simmons' role in the Iraq war. He has said that he told the US government about the imminent Peak Oil. But we don't know what it was exactly. It might very well have been a warning of the possibility of a sudden Saudi depletion. The intermediary peak oil price rise in 2000 may have convinced Bush, Cheney and others that the situation was alarming.

After 2001 the US government started two wars to reach new potential oil areas - Central Asia through Afghanistan and Iraq (Western Deserts). Especially the timetable of the Iraq war was clearly forced. The goverment obviously believed Simmons and feared  that oil prices would start rising considerably and if the price level would reach a very high level already before the war the inevitable additional war effect would cause a severe oil shock. There was no way to know for sure in advance what kind of disturbances the Middle East oil production would suffer during the war.

The oil prices increased about 30% in the beginning of the war - if this would happen now we would have $80 oil. We should remember also that Cheney could get direct information about Saudi production via Halliburton experts in the field. He had probably at least partially the same facts Simmons has used.

But Simmons and the government missed. The 2000 peak was only temporary and the Russians saved the day. There was no significant new oil in Central Asia and quite likely nothing important in the Iraqi deserts. The papers of the Iraqi oil ministry are now in the hands of the Americans. Oil price is high but there are still a lot of supply. Getting more Iraqi oil back online seems not to be very interesting. Nobody is making noise about the fact that the Iraqi situation takes out at least 1 mbpd of supply in stead of adding 1 - 1.5 mpd or even more as advertised.

Now the US has two prolonged and expensive - and futile wars in its hands. Simmons has of course no personal responsibility for this - he didn't make the decisions.

 

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PhilRelig on October 20, 2005 - 6:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks to everyone for your comments on Matthew Simmons.  I really don't know what to think of him.  On the one hand, I share the admiration many of you have expressed both about his intellectual expertise as a Peak Oil theorist, and the fact that he really does seem to care deeply about the future of the planet - unlike many, many others from the upper-class background he hails from.  But I have to confess that his personal, professional, and political ties to Bush, Cheney's energy task force of 2001, the Council on Foreign Relations, etc., bother me quite a lot.  It almost seems like he would have to fully renounce and repudiate these kinds of ties to the Power Elite if he were to derive the full logical consequences of his care and concern for the planet, and for the future of humanity.  In a closely related vein, it seems like he would have to fully renounce and repudiate these kinds of ties in order to be fully truthful about how Peak Oil is being dealt with politically and militarily.  Any thoughts on how to reconcile those two aspects of who Matthew Simmons is?
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mikeB on October 20, 2005 - 7:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I have to confess that his personal, professional, and political ties to Bush, Cheney's energy task force of 2001, the Council on Foreign Relations, etc., bother me quite a lot

I have thought about this quite a lot.

The fact that he is the polar opposite of the likes of Heinberg and Ruppert, yet saying the same things as they, really makes me sit up and listen.

I think it's possible that Simmons is naive. Someone used the word "geek" above. That may clinch it. I don't see this as an insult (because I'm one, too).

The "personal friend of Bush" stuff nauseates me. But I genuinely LIKE Simmons, I intuitively trust him--BECAUSE he verifies what many, many other peak oil subscribers say from the opposite end of the political claptrap scale.

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step back on October 20, 2005 - 7:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Recently, I had an opportunity to show someone (someone very smart) a screen shot of the Hubert curve projections:
example:
http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/JulAug99/MS406c2.jpg

"I've seen these many times before," he said, "there is nothing new here, except they keep shifting the timing of the peak to the right every couple of years."

Suddenly, I had a flashback.
I had seen these curves before also.
They did nothing for me.
It was just a bunch of graphs claiming they can "see the future".
There are millions of BS graphs like this all around.

So what made me a Peak Oil convert?
It was Matt Simmons.
It was Matt Simmons on CSPAN.
He was talking about horizontal drilling techniques.
It sounded, real, plausible and technically coherent.

And of course, because I had been an engineer, I was interested in paying attention for a moment so I can learn about MODERN MARVELS ... how we humans get our oil now a days.

Then Matt starting talking about 3rd generation extraction techniques and how these were running out of steam IN SAUDIA ARABIA of all places!!!

That is what caught my attention.
That is what triggered me into actually doing some research.

I ran into plenty of gloom-doom-and-whacko Internet sites. But some of the sites had substance to them. Some of the pieces of the puzzle started falling into place.

It started with Matt Simmons.
He knew how to connect.

He is an International Hero.

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Rick on October 20, 2005 - 3:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The Oil Drum in fall
is replete with many words:
we like step back's poems.
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Rick on October 20, 2005 - 3:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm with you socially and politically, but let's give Matt a break. We don't need to integrate his personality, gain his confession, renunciation, or repudiation.

Simmons is, publicly, a single-issue guy, sounding the alarm bell on supply. He has certain political leanings (which he does not trumpet) that put him more in step with the majority of America. And his connections make him more credible, powerful and useful. But he is not a policy maker, and we can't hold him to account for that.

We shouldn't have a peak oil litmus test. We need everyone to know and understand, and to develop and debate solutions. Roscoe Bartlett describes himself as one of the most conservative members of Congress (eek!). But he's right on peak oil, and he's the only one talking, and I hope he lives and legislates until he's 100.

At this stage, I will be an issue-specific ally of anyone who is accurately talking about supply and demand issues. Until we get it through the collective skull that there is a big problem looming, we can't debate solutions. Awareness comes first. Politics comes later.

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PhilRelig on October 20, 2005 - 3:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for your comment, Rick.  I am not certain that you are correct that politics must come later rather than now, but I will not press the matter further at this time.  Instead, I would like to add one small item to the Simmons accolades that this thread has produced.  At the last ASPO meeting, during one of the panel discussions, Simmons referred to Colin Campbell as "my friend Colin Campbell."  I found this quite touching, especially since I do not think the two see eye to eye when it comes to the politics of Peak Oil.
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