The Oil Drum

Recently, I had an opportunity to show someone (someone very smart) a screen shot of the Hubert curve projections:
example:
http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/JulAug99/MS406c2.jpg

"I've seen these many times before," he said, "there is nothing new here, except they keep shifting the timing of the peak to the right every couple of years."

Suddenly, I had a flashback.
I had seen these curves before also.
They did nothing for me.
It was just a bunch of graphs claiming they can "see the future".
There are millions of BS graphs like this all around.

So what made me a Peak Oil convert?
It was Matt Simmons.
It was Matt Simmons on CSPAN.
He was talking about horizontal drilling techniques.
It sounded, real, plausible and technically coherent.

And of course, because I had been an engineer, I was interested in paying attention for a moment so I can learn about MODERN MARVELS ... how we humans get our oil now a days.

Then Matt starting talking about 3rd generation extraction techniques and how these were running out of steam IN SAUDIA ARABIA of all places!!!

That is what caught my attention.
That is what triggered me into actually doing some research.

I ran into plenty of gloom-doom-and-whacko Internet sites. But some of the sites had substance to them. Some of the pieces of the puzzle started falling into place.

It started with Matt Simmons.
He knew how to connect.

He is an International Hero.