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louGrinzo on October 20, 2005 - 9:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For the usual reasons quoted by everyone else, I generally consider Simmons to be one of the more trustworthy experts.

I would, however, like to see him stop with the headline-grabbing predictions.  In this article (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9753233/) he talks about the possibility of $40 natural gas and $190 oil this winter.

Someone needs to sit Matt down and explain to him that it helps no one for him to make these kinds of lottery ticket predictions.  If he happens to be right, he looks like a genius, but otherwise he looks like just another clueless chicken little.

If he's convinced Bad Things are coming, then he should say so, but without hanging a number on the prediction.

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step back on October 20, 2005 - 10:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
... but otherwise he looks like just another clueless chicken little.

Wait a minute.
This sounds like a huge double standard.
How come you are not out here taking Steve Forbes (Captain Capitalism) on for guranteeing a year ago in his front page editorial of Forbes Magazine that oil would be down below $35 by now and arguing all who are crying "beware" are chicken littles who do not understand the fundamentals of commodities ... that their prices always goes down?

Oil: $35 or $105? Part 1
The other day I posted a link to an article that was sent to me in which the financial publisher and previous presidential candidate Steve Forbes called the energy markets a bubble and said that oil would be going to $35 a barrel inside of a year. That figure is in sharp contrast to the Goldman Sachs $105 super spike scenario.

Who's right? ...
In the Forbes case, it's very likely that the call was politically motivated. If prices fall he's a hero. If prices don't fall, well then at least he tried to help the people. I don't have such a problem with that because if he were able to influence prices to the downside that would be good for the majority of people except likely Goldman Sachs and numerous hedge funds and their investors.

Overzealous opportunists and office seekers aside what then is the truth of oil prices?

from:
http://www.blogginwallstreet.com/2005_09_01_blogginwallstreet_archive.html

See also:
http://greens.org.au/mediacentre/mediareleases/senatornettle/010905a/view?searchterm=kerry%20forbes

P.S. ... and yes, oil is "down" to $60 today, but get real, 60=/=35 !!!!

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step back on October 20, 2005 - 10:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
In Summary:

How come Steve Forbes gets the Smirking Happy Chimp award for being the messenger of Happy Days Acoming?

And Matt Simmons gets the boot for being a realistic pessimist?

Is it because of our irrational human nature?

Is that the whole basis of our "rational" thunking?

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Murray on October 20, 2005 - 11:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The one problem that I see with Simmons is that he consistently underestimates the role that efficiency and conservation can play. This last year he has come to recognize the train/truck potential, but he downplays the potential for more efficient cars, citing the length of time needed to replace the fleet. While his numbers are right they overlook the Pareto principle. On NG he has not really thought through the potential for either efficiency or demand destruction. Having said that a NG spike to $40.00 is not so outlandish. In Feb. 2003 NG went to $18.00/MBtu interday, and to $28.00 briefly intraday. The NY gate has gone above $30.00 more than once in recent years, even if that is only a local effect.
Simmons himself has said that he has advised Bush and Cheney, but noted that he is not close to either one. He strikes me as an honest man, seriously concerned for the country, and hoping that he can contribute to averting, or at least ameliorating, a major economic crisis. More power to him.  Murray
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PhilRelig on October 20, 2005 - 11:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ah, you have hit upon the crux of my reservations about Simmons:  What knowledge does he have of possibly sinister goings on behind closed doors at the Cheney Energy Task Force and related meetings of top policy makers that he is not publicly revealing?  I admire Simmons too; but to be truly heroic, I would urge him to turn fully against his socio-economic class interests and tell all.  My argument for why he should do this is that his great caring and concern for the world as a whole (which I also believe is genuine - like everyone else who has been posting about this) directly contradicts his continued partial allegiance to his own socio-economic class.
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