The Oil Drum

54 comments on Midweek Open Thread...

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Murray on October 20, 2005 - 11:44am

The one problem that I see with Simmons is that he consistently underestimates the role that efficiency and conservation can play. This last year he has come to recognize the train/truck potential, but he downplays the potential for more efficient cars, citing the length of time needed to replace the fleet. While his numbers are right they overlook the Pareto principle. On NG he has not really thought through the potential for either efficiency or demand destruction. Having said that a NG spike to $40.00 is not so outlandish. In Feb. 2003 NG went to $18.00/MBtu interday, and to $28.00 briefly intraday. The NY gate has gone above $30.00 more than once in recent years, even if that is only a local effect.
Simmons himself has said that he has advised Bush and Cheney, but noted that he is not close to either one. He strikes me as an honest man, seriously concerned for the country, and hoping that he can contribute to averting, or at least ameliorating, a major economic crisis. More power to him. Murray

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PhilRelig on October 20, 2005 - 11:57am

Ah, you have hit upon the crux of my reservations about Simmons: What knowledge does he have of possibly sinister goings on behind closed doors at the Cheney Energy Task Force and related meetings of top policy makers that he is not publicly revealing? I admire Simmons too; but to be truly heroic, I would urge him to turn fully against his socio-economic class interests and tell all. My argument for why he should do this is that his great caring and concern for the world as a whole (which I also believe is genuine - like everyone else who has been posting about this) directly contradicts his continued partial allegiance to his own socio-economic class.