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You are probably right here - I have been seeing the spread between diesel and RUL growing in recent days. Right now diesel is $3.19 - RUL is $2.79.
I hear rumors that the introduction of ULSD will be delayed, but nobody can find out anything concrete. I have a friend who is a reporter for a trade rag for truckers, and she was getting quite frustrated with the EPA because she couldn't get a straight answer about this from them.
SO to bail on the ULSD requirement would also require bailing on truck emissions (after 5 years of R&D and the start of a changeover in production). Even if the new requirements go forward mixed availability of ULSD would be another reason for fleets to hold off on the new technology (already there is a massive pre buy going on with fleets loading up on new trucks this year so they do not have to buy new trucks until the tech is proven for a year or two)