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31 comments on The Productivity of Vehicles

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Boof on October 20, 2005 - 7:27am

If this is a system invariant and not a spurious correlation the implications are stark. With say 2% annual decline in fuel supply hence miles travelled then the US economy will be halved by year 2030. It would be interesting to compare the series for China for the last 10 years to see if other automotive economies follow a similar pattern. There are wake up calls all around but some aren't listening.

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coffee17 on October 20, 2005 - 8:15am

Careful: while the number of miles driven correlates with GDP, it doesn't mean that a reduction in one will result in a reduction in the latter.

While a reduction in GDP would mean less disposable income, it's easy to reason how that would result in less miles driven. However, since some of the driving is for pleasure, it doesn't seem unreasonable that one could drop the amount of miles without directly effecting GDP.

Unless you want to do a write up showing that GDP is directly related to miles driven, as Stuart's done this excellent example of the correlation.

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Cornucopia on October 21, 2005 - 3:09am

Even frivolous driving gives the economy a boost. You need to service your car, buy new tires etc much more often if you drive more. Also, road-side restaurants get better business if people drive more. Cars will also wear down earlier, forcing the purchase of new cars more often if people drive for fun, and not just for profit.

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