I'm pretty sure Lee Raymond knows exactly what's happening.  He knows Exxon is good at oil, and pretty much not good at anything else.  So he's going to let other people spend the R&D dollars and make the mistakes, and when he sees a renewable solution that meets his ROI requirements, he'll be sitting on the world's largest stack of cash.  

He's just keeping his powder dry.

He's going to wait a long time.  I thought there is no renewable that has the ROI of just sticking a pipe into the ground.  After peak oil you actually going to have to spend money to make money.