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29 comments on There's A New Kid In Town -- Iran Versus Kazakhstan

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jkissing on November 23, 2005 - 4:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Total exports from the two countries seem to be dropping.
Meanwhile, Iran's population is young and breeding well(typical of other OPEC countries, not least Saudi), so their internal demand is almost clearly understated.
As an aside, citizens of OPEC countries tend to be fairly well off, and oil is frequently subsidized to keep their non-voting citizens happy, or at least not sad; OPEC countries' internal consumption is likely to be surging, off-setting some of the demand destruction going on in others.
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DuncanK on November 23, 2005 - 5:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
What is your definition of "Fairly well off"?

GDP per capita has been falling in most OPEC countries.
In fact, the GDP per capita measured across all OPEC countries is now lower than any of the OECD countries.

Matt Simmons has recognised that increasing poverty in these countries is likely to fuel increased terrorism.

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Dan Ur on November 23, 2005 - 7:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
First someone beat me to the punch.  

 Suadi regular Joe's aren't as well off as they once were, now that their numbers are so high.  Used to they could make a decent living off the Crown's Oil payments,  Now those numbers are cut almost in 4ths.  The Princes number into the 1,000's each of them getting bigger cuts.  There are several articles in National Geographic, first starting in the early to mid 70's and either this year or last year talking about all this.  I don't have dates on these, but have seen them and read them.

 Indonesia recently opted to slow or shut down completely their oil subsidy.  Though it was met with some turmoil, it was a needed thing as Indonesia is not a NET Importer of Finished Oil Products.

 IRAN is not a Place filled with rich folks feeding off the oil either.

 Only the Shiekdoms,  Only the places where the Princes or Shieks  are in control,  mostly the Little countries outside of Saudi Arabia, are filled with small Largely Rich Populations.
 

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