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The U.S. does derive some small benefit from the conversion of currency to purchase oil if it is priced in dollars. However this would only last for a day or so during the transaction period. The significant benefit of the dollar as a reserve currency is assets held in dollars. It is far more important what is done with the dollars after the transaction.
The reality is that most oil producing countries are holding a huge quantity of dollars, every day, 365 days a year. The choice to hold dollar denominated assets is based on perceptions of risk, return and exchange rate management by the investing country.
It would make almost no difference to the US if oil was priced in another currency. It would make a huge difference if the funds the oil producing countries hold were invested in non-dollar assets. However, it appears to be the case that petrodollars are currently being invested in the US in large quantities.
This would have the same impact that would occur if the Chinese did the same thing. The dollar would fall, US interest rates would go up, and our economy would suffer. I am not claiming that this would be a good thing, but it is entirely unrelated to the Iranian bourse or dollar pricing of oil. It is allocation of assets, which I noted in my original post was a realistic concern.
However, both Asian economies and oil producers do continue to invest in the US for a reason and won't divest unless that reason changes. In either case, their currency and exports would get more expensive and their best trading partner's economy would be damaged.
I recognize that the US benefits from having the global currency and that our current fiscal position makes us vulnerable to changes in the flow of capital. However, this has little to do with the recurrent claim that plans to change the currency in which oil is priced is a major economic issue or the cause of wars.
But it would seem to me that if I were a Middle Eastern oil producer and I sell you a barrel of oil on the Iranian bourse and receive euros instead of dollars, would I not be far more inclined to park those euros in euro-denominated assets rather than have to exchange my euros for dollars, possibly at an unfavorable exchange rate?
Looking at the flip side of this, if you, as a US oil purchaser, have to convert your dollars into euros to buy my barrrel of oil, might that not put you in a less favorable position, again due to possibly unfavorable exchange rates?
And lastly, for those Middle Eastern (and other countries) that are becoming increasingly squeamish about having so much money in US assets, doesn't trading on an Iranian bourse make it all that much easier to avoid US assets?
While I'm not sure this is a big enough issue for the US to start a war over, I don't see how an Iranian bourse can have anything but a negative impact on the US.
Again, I have an open mind about this, and if I am wrong I would welcome being shown where so.
Now you have to understand that there are many other countries in the same situation. One of them being the big bear, Russia.
Another consideration is that by looking to the current US economic situation (growing deficits and so on) one wouldn't think owning US assets a good idea, unless of course you'd have to purchase oil.
Also you have to consider the psychological effects of such an event. If you're a central banker with 70% of your reserves in petrodollars, and you get suspicious of a coming dollar fall what would you do? That kind of fears can really drive the market, like in 2004 as more the dollar fell, more dollars where dumped in the open; until of course Greenspan made up is mind. Now imagine Trichet following his steps.
Finally I'd like to point out that a dollar fall won't be good to anybody (at least I don't see how). Besides the obvious consequences for the US, let's suppose that a major shift is made to the euro, that would lead to European unemployment rates which I prefer not to foresee.
If oil starts trading in euros:
- There will be no reason for the oil producing countries to lose millions from the conversion to USD.
- What is thousand times more important - there will be much less incentitive for every other country to accept USD and to invest in USD assets. If I were a buyer and oil traded in euros, I would hold euros on my account to hedge against exchange rate risk and to avoid conversion charges. And if I knew oil would become scarce I would hold even more euros to have an insurance against future price shocks. Don't be fooled by the price; the real value of oil is not equal to half a GSM, and everyone knows it.
- Just to mention here that the whole Breton-Woods system imposing freely tradable currencies is tied with the petrodollar system to force the countries to hold huge reserves of USD for two purposes:
- to protect their domestic currencies from currency runnups (predicated by the Breton-Woods system)- to buy oil
Reason 1 weakened with the appearance of the euro; can you imagine what will happen if reason 2 also disappears? The resulting shift could be devastating; the world is soaked with 4 trillion of the greenbacks and there is absolutely nothing to cover for them here at home.
You used to post on GNN?
Take a look at the latest Global Economic Forum commentary from Steve Roach of Morgan Stanley, for November 28, at:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html
His commentary is the first listed. If you read this after November 28, you will have to go to the Archives link and click on November 28.
His commentary suggests that in fact, large quantities of petro-dollars are not being re-invested, at least not to the same degree that they were in the '70s.
This is not your father's petro-dollar recycling...
Among the greatest benefits of having your fiat money universally accepted is that trade deficits are no obstacle - and all the energy needed is available by outbidding other countries who do not have the luxary of just printing as much money as they need to main their standard of living. Essentially the country to hold the keys to the world's printing press will maintain its standard of living better and longer as the rest of te world slowly gets darker.
Roubini Global Economics (http://www.rgemonitor.com/), an excellent economic service, says that oil producers are indeed recycling much of their petrodollars back into US denominated assets. What would happen if they didn't? William Clark explores this in his book Petrodollar Warfare (http://www.petrodollarwarfare.com/). An update on what he thinks is available at Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse (http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?itemid=1342).
Even slight moves away from the dollar as thee reserve asset will probably have negative consequences for the US economy.
Aljazeera had an opinion peice on the IOB.
Fewer nations would be willing to hold the dollar in reserve which would cause a significant devaluation and result in the loss seigniorage revenues. In addition, US energy-related companies stand to lose out as they will be unable to participate in the bourse due to the longstanding American trade embargo on Iran.