The Oil Drum

26 comments on More on the long term UK situation

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Chris Vernon on November 29, 2005 - 6:38pm

The UK isn't looking great:

For the three months June 2005 to August 2005 compared to the same period a year earlier:

production of petroleum fell by 16.2%;
production of natural gas fell by 17.0%;
production of coal and other solid fuels fell by 24.9%;
electricity produced from nuclear sources rose by 11.8%;
electricity produced from wind and natural flow hydro fell by 4.4%.

http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/11/39

We also know that 70% (capacity) of the UK nuclear fleet (providing 22% electricity) will be decommissioned within 9 years, North Sea gas (providing ~35% electricity) will be almost totally depleted by 2020 and UK coal (providing about half of the 35% coal fired electricity) reserves of 220 million tonnes has a R/P ration of 9 years!

With an increasing trade deficit we can't import the energy so where's it going to come from?

Energy Island
Until very recently the UK was an energy island, self sufficient in energy. This situation is changing rapidly. Domestic gas, oil and coal extraction rates are all crashing and the nuclear fleet is ageing, soon to be decommissioned. Whilst not impossible to sustain a successful economy and high standard of living on imported energy (see Japan). The rate of change could be devastating to the UK, both in terms of reduced security of supply and the negative effect on the trade deficit.

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Madman on November 29, 2005 - 7:32pm

Personally, how the transportation issue is handled there is where I am watching (of course, I'm a transportation engineer so there is some bias). From my experiences in England (circa 1994-95), the British were fairly dependent on motor vehicle for freight, much more than on 'The Continent'. Suburbanization is well along and there did not seem to be a significant Local Grower economy, just some weekend farmer's markets stuff. I don't mean to say it is "Kuntsler's Worst Nightmare" but I feel the rising cost of petrol will be a big problem for the Brits in the very near future.

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tedman on November 29, 2005 - 8:45pm

As we have seen shortages in many developing countries, could it be that UK is the first to go Poof. --- A worrying winter indeed, will watch events closely as the weather turns colder.