I think the government will be spending more on R&D.

The "government", if there is such a singular creature is a political animal. It does as those at the top dogmatically dictate:

Read here on Bush & benzene fracturing:
http://democrats.reform.house.gov/features/politics_and_science/example_oil_and_gas.htm

More:
http://www.csicop.org/doubtandabout/sciencewars/

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-02-20-bush-science_x.htm

Bush is a lame duck.  He's history.  

If his science policies outlast him, however, I will be forced to conclude that we are further along Tainter's curve than I thought.

A society feeling the pinch of diminishing returns begins to engage in "scanning behavior."  People feel dissatisfied, and begin looking around for alternatives.  Foreign customs may become the vogue, new religions may arise, ideological strife intensifies, governments invest more on R&D.  

But once a society reaches the point where investments in further complexity no bring any return, scanning behavior ceases.  The government instead enforces strict behavioral controls, in hopes of increasing efficiency. And they can no longer afford R&D.