<Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze.The Oil DrumA different view of the gas situation>

40 comments on Well none of this is particularly good news!

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

westexas on December 6, 2005 - 1:29am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Michael Economides is predicting $20 natural gas in January.   In some areas, this will translate to spot prices perhaps far in excess of $20.   The biggest losers are going to be industrial users, and the people that work in those industries.  Furthermore, in areas that are heavily dependent on natural gas for electrical generation,  there is a high probability of blackouts this winter in some areas, especially in the Northeast.  

If we are seeing the beginning of a rapid climate change (i.e., a new "Little Ice Age"), these recent weather patterns---very active hurricane seasons and very cold winters in the Northeast US and Europe--may be with us for a long time.  The two factors together are going to:  (1)  reduce natural gas production, as hurricane after hurricane hits the Gulf and (2) cause natural gas demand in the Northeast to skyrocket.    In turn, this will result in an incredible demand for LNG.  

The irony for the Northeast is that they have been fighting two things that might save them from (literally) freezing to death in the dark:  (1)  greater wind power capacity and (2)  more LNG receiving facilities.  

I don't think that I would be buying ocean front real estate anywhere from Bangor, Maine to Brownsville, Texas, or for that matter real estate with 200 miles or so of the coast.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
coffee17 on December 6, 2005 - 9:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Just get this mug to use as a reference when considering land :/
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Leanan on December 6, 2005 - 9:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't think $20 is unreasonable.  It's already been above that in the U.K.  
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on December 6, 2005 - 1:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Re: "If we are seeing the beginning of a rapid climate change (i.e., a new "Little Ice Age"), these recent weather patterns---very active hurricane seasons and very cold winters in the Northeast US and Europe--may be with us for a long time."

That's a big "if". More likely, the winter weather patterns we've seen in the last few years are related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (pdf).
Climate variability in the North Atlantic is influenced largely by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which involves changes in the low pressure center near Iceland and the high pressure near the Azores. When the phase of the NAO is positive both pressure centers are more intense, we encounter both stronger westerlies at mid-latitudes and trade winds in the tropics. The shifting patterns of the NAO cause the mid-latitude storm track to shift north/south: high NAO to the north, low NAO to the south. A negative NAO and a more southerly storm track, such as what we have had the past two winters, leads to a colder, snowier winter in the Midwest and Northeast US, colder offshore waters, and a more southerly track of the Gulf Stream & a colder Britain....
Here's a good introduction to the NAO.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
sr on December 6, 2005 - 2:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"I don't think that I would be buying ocean front real estate anywhere from Bangor, Maine to Brownsville, Texas, or for that matter real estate with 200 miles or so of the coast."

  1. Bangor is not on the ocean. It is inland, at an elevation of 58 meters.

  2. Why? Because of the tsunami risk? Rising seas? Hurricanes? Please clarify.

  3. Maine is not Texas.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
westexas on December 6, 2005 - 3:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The entire U.S. East Coast, not just the Gulf Coast, is vulnerable to hurricanes.

The Northeast U.S. may get hit with a triple whammy--summer hurricanes; more winter storms & colder winter weather and problems with heating oil and natural gas supplies.  

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
odograph on December 6, 2005 - 2:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm a mile and a half back from the Pacific Ocean.  I figure the optimum time to move is when the shorefront floods and my house looks safe the the yokels. ;-)
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.