The Oil Drum

In the IEO2001 forecast, North Sea production reaches a peak in 2006, at almost 6.6 million barrels/day (mb.d). Production from Norway, Western Europe's largest producer, is expected to peak at about 3.7 mb/d in 2004 and then gradually decline to about 3.1 mb/d by the end of the forecast period with the maturing of some of its large and older fields. The United Kingdom is expected to produce about 3.1 mb/d by the middle of this decade, followed by a decline to 2.7 mb/d by 2020.

The report was published in March 2001 and talks of a peak in 2006. The facts of the matter are that the North Sea had already peaked back in 1999 at 5.947 mb/d! Today we are more than 1mb/d below that 1999 peak.

For Norway they forecasted a peak of 3.7 mb/d in 2004 declining to 3.1mb/d by 2020. In fact Norway had peaked the year earlier (2000) but the real absurdity was the forecasted rate of decline post peak of 1.1% per year. Show me any province, let alone a modern offshore one with a post peak decline rate as slow as that!

The UK forecast of a 3.1mb/d peak in 2005 compares with a reality of a 2.684 mb/d peak in 1999, a full two years before this report was published. The report goes on to forecast a decline to 2.7 mb/d by 2020, an annual fall of less than 1%, when in reality the UK has seen average annual falls of over 7% from 1999.

These forecasted decline rates are most concerning, either the EIA are incredibly ignorant or they are purposefully releasing misleading information.
http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/12/44