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17 comments on A good review of Chinese developments

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joule on December 22, 2005 - 8:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
The way things are shaping up, it looks like the US is getting a very expensive lesson ($300+ billion, with the meter still spinning) that its defacto 'energy policy' of militarily dominating the Middle East and Central Asia isn't going to work as planned.

What appears to be happening is that the major powers are choosing up sides in what could easily become a hot war (real hot if it goes nuclear) over who controls which oil and gas reserves. I fear there will never be international cooperation in solving the world's energy problem, only increasingly dangerous competition.  We will spend  several orders of magnitude more in trying to militarily intimidate each other than we will on developing alternative sources of energy.  No better than a pack of dogs fighting over the last bone.

Man, I'm getting depressed!

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louGrinzo on December 23, 2005 - 12:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The US is indeed getting its head handed to it (as my mother used to say) in that part of the world.  It's amazing (at least to some people) how quickly towering arrogance, blinding greed, and intentional myopia can turn into a stupendous mess.

I've been pointing out for some time that Iraq was a target not just because of their own oil, but because those 12 or 14 permanent bases the US is building there are ever so conveniently close to the Caspian Sea.

I wouldn't extrapolate too much from current circumstances, though.  The political pendulum is just starting its return swing in the US, so hopefully there will be a major opportunity after 1/20/2009 to reverse course on some or all of these insane foreign policy debacles.

That's the hope that lets me sleep at night.  Most nights, that is...

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george in vermont on December 23, 2005 - 12:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This appeared on Wednesday in The Independent, with a link on Drudge. Strangely, the Drudge link was removed rather quickly. I have heard from a reliable source close to the events in Iraq that the analysis here is spot on:

"Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions.

Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly defeated.

The Shia religious coalition has won a total victory in Baghdad and the south of Iraq. The Sunni Arab parties who openly or covertly support armed resistance to the US are likely to win large majorities in Sunni provinces. The Kurds have already achieved quasi-independence and their voting reflected that.

The election marks the final shipwreck of American and British hopes of establishing a pro-Western secular democracy in a united Iraq.

Islamic fundamentalist movements are ever more powerful in both the Sunni and Shia communities. Ghassan Attiyah, an Iraqi commentator, said: "In two and a half years Bush has succeeded in creating two new Talibans in Iraq."

There's more.

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Twilight on December 23, 2005 - 2:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The Chinese moves have been with money, while the US has used military force (the money thing not being our strong suit right now).  So far, it would appear that the military approach has not worked, but that does not mean we won't try it again.  The one-track wonders running this country right now don't seem to have any other tune to play, and I wonder what target would be most attractive to them?  I can't imagine any other than Iran, they are the key to so much of this.  Syria is small potatos, I see that as another issue not really oil related.  The US has surely worked to set the stage for an Iranian misadventure - but will we be that stupid?  And if we don't, what will be our next move, as we have pissed off just about everyone?  

Can you imagine if there were trouble with SA?  It's got to be clear to all that this would truly be the "end of the world as we know it".

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joule on December 23, 2005 - 8:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, I DO believe we will be that stupid. As you said, it's the only tune we know how to play, though we haven't been playing it very well lately.  

Could Iran be the 21st Century version of Sarajevo 1914? Stay tuned.

In light of recent developments I don't see how anyone can still view oil as just another market commodity like corn or soybeans. Many forces other than classical market forces are at play here.  Oil is the life-blood of nations, and as such, nations will fight to the death to get what they believe to be their 'fair share'. And we believe that our fair share is roughly 25% of the world's oil production.  Unfortunately, others think differently.

Though one can talk intelligently about post-peak scenarios and population die-offs, etc., to me it seems that the biggest threat facing our species is an out-of-control global war over oil. In my view, all other threats pale in comparison.

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Ibon on December 24, 2005 - 4:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Resource wars are energy intensive and expensive. In a world of declining more expensive fossil fuels the costs of military pursuits will sky rocket. Also they will compete with increasing demands for domestic infrastructure transitions as the energy crisis unfolds. Geopolitical strategy going forward will therefore be influenced by energy costs along with all of the rest of societal activities. Diplomacy and cooperation is far less energy intensive and may receive greater importance, not because the US would become more enlightened in their geopolitics but simply for the reason that they have no choice.

All those US soldiers trained in urban warfare over their in Iraq will someday have an important domestic role to play as social unrest unfolds domestically as a result of dislocations that result from the economic upheaval of increased energy costs.  

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