The Oil Drum

17 comments on A good review of Chinese developments

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Twilight on December 23, 2005 - 2:26pm

The Chinese moves have been with money, while the US has used military force (the money thing not being our strong suit right now). So far, it would appear that the military approach has not worked, but that does not mean we won't try it again. The one-track wonders running this country right now don't seem to have any other tune to play, and I wonder what target would be most attractive to them? I can't imagine any other than Iran, they are the key to so much of this. Syria is small potatos, I see that as another issue not really oil related. The US has surely worked to set the stage for an Iranian misadventure - but will we be that stupid? And if we don't, what will be our next move, as we have pissed off just about everyone?

Can you imagine if there were trouble with SA? It's got to be clear to all that this would truly be the "end of the world as we know it".

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joule on December 23, 2005 - 8:42pm

Yes, I DO believe we will be that stupid. As you said, it's the only tune we know how to play, though we haven't been playing it very well lately.

Could Iran be the 21st Century version of Sarajevo 1914? Stay tuned.

In light of recent developments I don't see how anyone can still view oil as just another market commodity like corn or soybeans. Many forces other than classical market forces are at play here. Oil is the life-blood of nations, and as such, nations will fight to the death to get what they believe to be their 'fair share'. And we believe that our fair share is roughly 25% of the world's oil production. Unfortunately, others think differently.

Though one can talk intelligently about post-peak scenarios and population die-offs, etc., to me it seems that the biggest threat facing our species is an out-of-control global war over oil. In my view, all other threats pale in comparison.

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Ibon on December 24, 2005 - 4:19pm

Resource wars are energy intensive and expensive. In a world of declining more expensive fossil fuels the costs of military pursuits will sky rocket. Also they will compete with increasing demands for domestic infrastructure transitions as the energy crisis unfolds. Geopolitical strategy going forward will therefore be influenced by energy costs along with all of the rest of societal activities. Diplomacy and cooperation is far less energy intensive and may receive greater importance, not because the US would become more enlightened in their geopolitics but simply for the reason that they have no choice.

All those US soldiers trained in urban warfare over their in Iraq will someday have an important domestic role to play as social unrest unfolds domestically as a result of dislocations that result from the economic upheaval of increased energy costs.