The Oil Drum

20 comments on IEA Revisions--The 2006 Forecast

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Greko on December 28, 2005 - 2:41pm

IEA estimations and statistics are always wrong, because IEA has a political function. It always tries to persuade OPEC that oil production is not enough.

See the critique here:

http://www.groppelong.com/Reports/reports.htm

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Dave Cohen on December 28, 2005 - 7:00pm

Thanks for the link. Henry Groppe spoke eloquently at ASPO-USA. Check out the summary of their July 2005 report The Oil Business (pdf) from the site. Here's their non-OPEC summary.

Note the large differences with the IEA numbers. Groppe, Long & Littell is one of the oldest and most respected consulting services in the Oil & Gas business. With discrepancies as large as these, what's a poor boy to do?

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jkissing on December 28, 2005 - 9:02pm

Groppe has a far better track recoord than IEA, or anybody else, for that matter. Best to look carefully at his tables. If true, we get maybe 1/2% more/year for five years, then 3/4% less/year for five years, then maybe not so good. At today's price the world seems to want 1-2% more/year, so looks like a firm price for quite a while, or until ctl takes up the slack. Maybe we have arrived at a plateau, which might not satisfy wannabe drivers, with new production more or less countering old field declines.

In spite of this, I think prices will be soft at least until summer.