Another well known consultant, Simmons, has an interesting interview in Barron's:

http://online.barrons.com/article_email/SB113598700926335171-lMyQjAxMDE1MzM1MTkzODE3Wj.html

part two of the interview is paid content...
The last Q & A in the article:

"Why does ExxonMobil have a different view of where the oil price is headed?

I don't have the vaguest idea why they could ever think we are going back to $25 oil other than their business model desperately needs that to happen to have their long-term strategy work. High oil prices are very bad news for big oil. The higher the price, the more proven reserves they've already booked they lose in these foreign concessions, because once their projects hit their payout targets, then the host government's share rises. I think the major oil companies are lost in the wilderness right now."

Can anyone elaborate on how these foreign concessions agreements are typically structured?

Ask Venezuela:

Venezuela will save a minimum of 3 billion U.S. dollars under the terms of the deal, because the oil companies used to sell 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the government at international prices rather than at cost prices.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-01/03/content_4002394.htm