The Oil Drum

69 comments on Refining the Plateau

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PaulusP on January 5, 2006 - 8:55am

There probably is a lack of refining capacity for heavier crudes, and supplies consists of an ever growing part of these.

I really do think we are presently at Peak Oil, and this may be reflected in the refinery market where PO has been anticipated by not expanding capacity.

If the above is true, your analysis raises another important question. How long will we be able to maintain the plateau, especially in the light of heavier crude entering the market?

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PaulusP on January 5, 2006 - 9:06am

Here is an indication that more and more heavier crude is in the market http://www.energybulletin.net/8949.html

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dissident on January 5, 2006 - 11:36am

If there was an ample supply of sour crude that was not being refined it would be offered for much less than $50. It is not credible that the price would go down if sufficient sour crude refining capacity came on stream. In Saudi Arabia sour crude comes from small fields that could be called leftovers. There isn't a sour crude Ghawar. In Russia, sour crude comes from old depleting fields, mainly in Tatarstan. There is not a vast amount of sour crude available in contrast to totally degraded oil found in tar sands.

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Jack on January 5, 2006 - 11:47am

That's right.

The spread between light and heavy oils has been growing though. While I think this is primarily because of decreases in available light sweet crudes, refinery configuration and capacity do play a complementary role.