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I implore you to look at the history of Iraqi production from 1973 to the present.They have pumped as much as 4 million barrels per day and as little as zero. And these are not one-time deals. Start of Iran-Iraq War, Gulf War I, UN Food-for-Oil, Saddam just deciding to stop (circa 1998-2001, I forget). I'm not kidding either. And I know. I went down the month by month list before I wrote my first post, so I wouldn't look like a complete fool - I don't make this stuff up.
Yeah, you could call it 2.5 mbpd, or whatever. But it's hard to say what would make your number better than mine. Catch my drift.
This situation has existed since at least 1973. Try taking all your models, all your assumptions, all your theories, all your everything - and removing Iraq from all of them. Step 2 - rethink everything. Now, did anything change? I don't think so. You may think so, but if I showed you graphs - one with Iraq, one without, with no labels - you wouldn't be able to tell the difference.
Iraq doesn't appear on BP's 2005 World Oil review total world oil production spreadsheet which covers 1965 to the present. Has anybody else noticed this? A lot of people on this site use that as source. I just noticed this today, maybe I deleted the line by accident. I'm waiting for someone to tell me I'm hallucinating.