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35 comments on Projecting US Oil Production

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DuncanK on January 12, 2006 - 9:27am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
So when you favour the Gaussian estimate, are you also saying that you favour the gaussian increasing decline rates?  If so, how does that compare with your earlier calculation of a constant, low decline rate?
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Stuart Staniford on January 12, 2006 - 1:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For world production, as opposed to US production, we are at or close to peak (I believe). So decline rates will be quite low under either model for quite some time and we won't be able to tell the difference in the different decline rate behavior for decades. However, the US is a lot more advanced in its overall production profile.
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DuncanK on January 12, 2006 - 4:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
So what do the Hubbert and Gaussian curves look like for the world so far?  Given the huge 'noise' in the production graph in the early 80s, how do these curves fit the actual data?
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Stuart Staniford on January 13, 2006 - 2:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm planning to get there in stages.
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Nate Hagens on January 16, 2006 - 11:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Stuart - could you redo the world logistic but frame it in a per capita way? You can get the data from EarthTrends
It would be interesting to see the shape turn from a gaussian curve to more of a steeper drop on the right side.

When people are shown a Hubbert curve for the first time (or second or 3rd) they seem to think that 2030 will be like 1975 which wasnt too bad - but there will be 2.5x the people by then compared to 1975. Just wonder if youd graphically done that before...

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