Article in NYT. Probably not big news for anyone here. Any reason why the UK can't get soemof these "record natural gas exports?"  I only bring this up in light of our conversation a few days ago about an impending gas crisis in Britain. For those unfamiliar, what is called the North Sea is really the combined efforts of the UK and Norway, with minimal input from the Dutch, Germans, and Danes, I believe. 8% is quite significant, and could offset at least British gas concerns for the near term. Methane is Methane.

January 12, 2006
Norway Sees Dip in 2006 Oil Production
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 2:04 p.m. ET

OSLO, Norway (AP) -- Oil production from Norway's offshore fields is expected to decline by almost 5 percent this year, although natural gas exports continue to set new records, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate said Thursday.

The government agency's annual resources report projected production of about 2.43 million barrels per day in 2006, down from 2.56 million barrels per day in 2005.

The report said crude oil flows from the world's third largest oil exporter also declined about 9 percent from 2004 to 2005. It said that was due partly to lost production from the Snorre offshore field after it was shut down into early 2005 because of a natural gas blowout in late November 2004.

The Stavanger-based directorate said production was also about 7.5 percent lower than it had projected in its 2004 report, but that oil flows were now expected to remain stable through 2010.

However, it said natural gas exports during 2005 set a new annual record of 35.3 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 8 percent over 2004.

''In the years to come, we also expect production of salable gas to increase,'' the report said.

The directorate said investments in developing offshore finds had increased nearly 23 percent from 2004 to 83 billion kroner ($12.57 billion) in 2005.

Compare these results with the prediction from the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook we discussed a few days ago:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Slide14.gif

The drops being reported in the new article seem larger numerically than what I read off this chart, but we still see the claim that next year's drop will be less than this year's. That's pretty interesting in view of how some here have characterized north sea oil as collapsing.

You should bare in mind while the absolute number in b/d is less the % decline could be more or equal.

example:

1mb/d peak output in 2005

800kb/d in 2006 = 20% decline (200kb/d change)

take same decline rate
640kb/d in 2007 = 20% decline (160kb/d change)

or same production loss
600kb/d in 2007 = 25% decline (200kb/d change)

So even though it shows 2007's decline lower than 2005 the base from which its declining will be a great deal lower resulting in probably higher % decline.

When people say collapsing, i would guess they mean rapid decline which i would take to be in the region of 8% and above.

Through the end of 2005, total North Sea oil production--as predicted by the Hubbert/Deffeyes method--is down 25% from its 1999 peak.   I would call that a collapse.   Given the estimate of remaining reserves, I don't see any alternative to continued sharp declines in production.
The UK part of that has droped from 2.693mbpd in January 2000 to 1.378mbpd in September 2005 a drop of 51% That must be a collapse by any standard.