The Oil Drum

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Halfin on January 13, 2006 - 12:52pm

Compare these results with the prediction from the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook we discussed a few days ago:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Slide14.gif

The drops being reported in the new article seem larger numerically than what I read off this chart, but we still see the claim that next year's drop will be less than this year's. That's pretty interesting in view of how some here have characterized north sea oil as collapsing.

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AlexC on January 13, 2006 - 1:28pm

You should bare in mind while the absolute number in b/d is less the % decline could be more or equal.

example:

1mb/d peak output in 2005

800kb/d in 2006 = 20% decline (200kb/d change)

take same decline rate
640kb/d in 2007 = 20% decline (160kb/d change)

or same production loss
600kb/d in 2007 = 25% decline (200kb/d change)

So even though it shows 2007's decline lower than 2005 the base from which its declining will be a great deal lower resulting in probably higher % decline.

When people say collapsing, i would guess they mean rapid decline which i would take to be in the region of 8% and above.

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westexas on January 13, 2006 - 3:52pm

Through the end of 2005, total North Sea oil production--as predicted by the Hubbert/Deffeyes method--is down 25% from its 1999 peak. I would call that a collapse. Given the estimate of remaining reserves, I don't see any alternative to continued sharp declines in production.