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40 comments on Outlook for 2006

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SRSrocco on January 16, 2006 - 9:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Jack, don't you understand physics....you need an energy supply to make shale into gas.  And the best source is natural gas....now that we are in a decline in natural gas...it becomes too expensive each year gas becomes more rare...so shale and tar sands will not be the miracle people are looking for in the future....because....within a few years...the natural gas that is used to produce this energy source will be 5-10 times the price.  

Maybe if we built nuclear reactor plants by these shale and tar sands, can they be produced...but that would take 10 years.  People need to stop this wishful thinking.

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Jack Greene on January 16, 2006 - 9:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
SRSrocco,

This is why I love the Oil Drum, as I can learn from it. And Physics is definitely not my long suit.

I am reminded of Germany and even Italy in World War II. Both built syfuel refineries and very quickly. Did it solve their fuel problems, no, but if Italy, the least of the Great Powers, could get a plant up by 1942, it should not take ten years to get more than a couple of plants going.

But the point is valid that for the immediate future it will take more effort, and of course we are not even talking about greenhouse gases.

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Oil CEO on January 17, 2006 - 2:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
How much oil was that plant producing in 1942?
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Jack Greene on January 17, 2006 - 6:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I do not know and checked around for Italy. Pirelli had the plant.

Germany started in 1938 to push sythetic fuel production. In 1939 it produced 2.2 metric tons.
1940 - 3.3
1941 - 4.1
1942 - 4.9
1943 - 5.7 and than a decline after that.

Remember this was a Germany that used 600,000 horses for its army when it invaded the Soviet Union in 1941.

Standard Oil helped get this working back in 1938 with German industry.

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Jack Greene on January 17, 2006 - 7:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Opps, the German figures are correct but the Italian synthetic plant was for rubber and for Pirelli to build it makes good sense.
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Oil CEO on January 18, 2006 - 6:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
roger that
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