The Oil Drum

14 comments on The gas supply situation is not getting much clearer

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Dave Cohen on January 27, 2006 - 12:00am

Thanks for the post, HO. I really only have one comment, which I believe describes the regions you are talking about now but extends into future supplies to regions elsewhere in the world.

What a mess this is!

This is one of those historical situations where events are not anticipated, happen faster than expected and create great turmoil. Who knows what the longer term fallout will be?

Just an after thought--Edward Gibbon's Decline And Fall of the Roman Empire. OK, that's probably not quite the case yet but we're getting there, aren't we?

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mcgowanjm on January 27, 2006 - 10:44am

"A tantalizing conspiracy of cognitive avoidance is common to the actor and his target. the actor does not wish to see himself as ingratiating; the target wants also to believe that the ingratiator is sincere" (p. 236).

If we believe our own lies it is much more difficult to be caught, because we are not making conscious efforts to lie. Furthermore, moral codes and laws punish the conscious lie much more stringently than the "honest" error

Social evolution and social influence: selfishness, deception, self-deception

Mario F. Heilmann
University of California at Los Angeles

US warns India over Iran stance

I was wondering what India was doing. India wants Iranian energy
and a truce with Pakistan (for pipeline transit) more than nukes from the US. (My Edit-India probably saw what the US had to offer during their last war games and decided they had just as good already).

Tie this in with Baku being able to transit HC's thru Iran, bypassing
Turkey and Israel. And Kuwait, SA, the UAE, Iraq, Iran having
300 billion bbls less than thought.

It is argued that self-induced stochastic resonance may offer one
possible scenario of how noise can robustly control the function of biological systems.

In summary, we have shown that a vanishingly small noise in excitable systems
with strong time-scale separation can induce a transition to a limit cycle
behavior.-Self-induced stochastic resonance
in excitable systems
Cyrill B. Muratov

As with Independence Day and the Aliens using a cycle down code to zero(for start of invasion) so the system is relaxing to equilibrium.

Much as the sandpile looks to be in great shape just before the next
falling sand particle creates the avalanche.

The smooth transition started on 121200, the asymptotic point was 031703, and decline into the Olduvai Gorge begins...