Update [2005-10-19 2:52:50 by Stuart Staniford]: Alas, Wilma is now category four with 150 mph winds and is sideswiping Honduras and Nicaragua with significant loss of life. NHC thinks she could go to category 5 later today. She's doing 8mph straight at the Yucatan, but the models continue to demand she should turn sharp right before getting there. If she proves to be an independent minded lady and continues straight across the Yucatan and goes back to cat 4-5 in the southern GoM, she'd devastate Mexican offshore production.

Update [2005-10-18 20:24:17 by Stuart Staniford]:Wilma has reached category two with 100mph winds and is doing about 8mph. In the satellite loop, she just took a little lurch towards the Yucatan.

Update [2005-10-18 17:5:16 by Stuart Staniford]:Wilma is a category one hurricane. An hour ago, the models were unanimous that she would take a sharp right past Cuba and go over Florida. But one has just broken ranks and predicted she'll go straight on up the Gulf. A meta-observation I have had from the last few years of hurricane and hurricane-forecast watching is that once hurricanes get charging, they don't seem to like to change course in the way forecasters demand of them - they often seem to change course later and less.

Update [2005-10-18 4:47:38 by Stuart Staniford]:. She's now up to 65mph wind speed, and expected to become a hurricane later today. Right now the models are in agreement that she's headed for the Yucatan/Cuba gap, but then most of them have her bend right over Florida and out into the Atlantic. However, they've been so unstable in their predictions that we probably shouldn't pay much attention.

Update [2005-10-17 13:8:1 by Stuart Staniford]: Watching the satellite loop, she basically headed south overnight, and then has done a sharp U-turn (eastward!) and is now headed north. Who knows!

Update [2005-10-17 12:31:34 by Stuart Staniford]: She is now officially Wilma, having strengthened to a tropical stom overnight. The models are all over the place. I don't think they have any clue where she's going to go yet.

Update [2005-10-15 23:11:26 by Stuart Staniford]: In advisory #2 "some strengthening is forecast", as the depression continues "gradually organizing".

Picture credit NOAA, as noted by billyt