The Productivity of Vehicles
Posted by Stuart Staniford on October 20, 2005 - 6:04am
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: gas prices, hubbert peak, oil prices, peak oil [list all tags]

It seems like there must be some deep reason for this, but it's not obvious what it is. One might think that any of the following might be relevant and might change to significant degrees over thirty plus years:
- Proportion of miles spent for "economically productive" versus "frivolous" purposes.
- Number of economically productive individuals carried in each vehicle mile.
- Average length of commute (as housing sprawls).
- Average distance trade goods moved.
- Labor productivity of individuals after they get to work/jobsite.
At any rate, given that the productivity of vehicles hasn't changed, fuel efficiency of US vehicles is easy to figure out (again from the Transportation Energy Data Book)
Taking the aggregate number, the highway fuel use per $GDP has dropped by 30%. So we're not at a 50% drop in oil/GDP yet (though we've got most of the way there). The rest must come from using less oil for electricity and heating, and maybe getting more GDP out of our industrial oil usage:
Source: DOE




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