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Quick Update on CERA 2005 projects

Posted by Stuart Staniford on October 8, 2005 - 2:58am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: gas prices, hubbert peak, oil prices, peak oil [list all tags]

I am slowly working on a bottom-up production model. As I trawl through endless oilfield development updates, I thought it might be useful to capture some of what I'm finding out in manageable chunks. So here's a quick status update on the projects that Heading Out documented from CERA's list for 2005.

  1. Bonga is delayed from September to November for first oil.
  2. Kizomba B came on in July, 6 months ahead of schedule.
  3. Albacora Leste, a year behind it's original schedule, is supposed to have started right around now, but I can't find confirmation of it's status.
  4. White Rose is on track to start any day, if it hasn't
  5. Thunder Horse is delayed into next year, due to the hurricane.
  6. Dharkoein in Iran, appears to have 50000 bpd as of July, and to be headed for 160000 bpd by December of next year.
  7. Adar Yeil/Tale was supposed to come on with first oil towards 200000 bpd this year and 300000 bpd by the end of next year. Looks like that's on track for about July first oil. However, it should be realized that this whole area of Sudan has been incredibly unstable, which is why this field, discovered in 1981, hasn't been developed before. The war reportedly began because the government wanted to clear all the local people away from the oilfields.
  8. Primorsk is a port, and HO was uncertain whether CERA meant Priobskoye (which ODAC lists for 2004) or Prirazlomnoye (ODAC has it for 2005). Priobskoye turns out to be a continuously producing field that Sibneft has been reworking. So I don't think it makes sense to count it as a new field. Prirazlomnoye is the first Barents Sea Arctic field. It is not going to happen in 2005 (they haven't towed the platform to the field yet), and is not looking too certain for 2006 either. This may be the most significant data point, because once we are done with the deep water, polar oil is about the only thing left to go get, so it's of considerable significance whether or not we can figure out how.
  9. Sakhalin I is producing oil, but the infrastructure to export that oil will not be ready until the first quarter of 2006. It will be ramping up production to reach 250000 bpd by the end of 2006. Gas is being exported already.
  10. The ACG Megastructure has been producing for a little while, with the Chirag early oil project running at about 140000 bpd, but the main bulk of the project started to come on line in Feb of this year, with phase I taking this year up to about 410,000 bpd for this year. Phase II will take that up to 800000 bpd, and it's expected to reach 1m bpd by 2010. We don't count the Chirag part that's been running since 1997 as a new project here.
My estimated production profiles for the high case is up top, and for the low case is just below. I welcome any other insights or corrections. For anyone who wants to see more detail, here's the work-in-progress spreadsheet.

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