According to the BP 2005 Statistical Review, in terms of production (page 4) and proven reserves (page 2), Iran is still a giant and Kazakhstan is a middle tier country among the world's oil suppliers. Iran produced 4081/kbd in 2004, 5.2% of the world's total while Kazakhstan produced 1295/kbd, a paltry 1.6% percent of the whole. Iran has 132.5 billon barrels in proven reserves, 11.1% of the world's total while Kazakhstan has 39.6 billion barrels, a 3.3% world share. But let's look into our chrystal ball to see what the future may look like.

According to the EIA, Iran (link above) with a population of 68,017,860 exports 63% of its oil production, using the rest for internal consumption. On the other hand, tiny Kazakhstan (link above) has a mere 15,185,844 people and uses only 18% of its production to meet internal demand. In addition, the EIA estimates Iranian FIP declines at between 8 and 13%. For our purposes, we'll use a hypothetical 10% nearer the lower end. Kazazkstan's current main production is from its Tengiz field, discovered in 1979. Whether it is in any kind of decline at all is unknown but for our purposes, a general 2% rate is assumed for all of Kazakhstan's production. As regards consumption, it is assumed here that Iranian demand remains constant at 37% of all oil produced there. A similar (and generous) assumption is made for Kazakhstan--demand will remain at 18% of all oil produced and the remaining 82% will be available for export.

This is an exercise looking to identify a trend and not make an exact prediction. So, these further assumptions are made in addition to those mentioned above concerning depletion and domestic consumption.

• Landlocked Khazakhstan can actually transport all of its exports via pipelines like the Caspian and the BTC.
• No "above the ground" (eg. terrorism) incidents inhibits production in either country.
• All of the projects mentioned in Skrebowski's Megaprojects document happen without delays in the time frame he gives. For example, a project like Kashagan in Kazakhstan has 3 phases. Skrebowski lists Kashagan Phase 1 as coming onstream 2008 as adding 450/kbd (2009). In this case, I add half (225/kbd) in 2008 and the remainder in 2009--similarly for other cases.

So, what finally after all that does the future look like? Here is the export capacity for each country for the years 2005 to 2012 based on our best Wild Ass Guess.



Whoa! As The Eagles once said in a song, it looks like "there's a new kid in town". Around the years 2008 to 2009 period, Kazakhstan is exporting more total oil supply to the OECD countries, China and (perhaps) India than Iran is. Maybe this would explain why all the Big Boys (the US, the Europeans, Russia, China, India, Iran itself) are so anxious to talk to and bribe the Sultan of the Steppes, Nursultan Nazarbayev who is almost, but not quite, the Kim Il Sung of Central Asia. On the other hand, Iran is easily pounced upon as a part of the "Axis of Evil" over their nuclear program and their stated desire to rid the world of the Zionist Entity and fight the "The Great Satan". Despite the idealized assumptions made in this post, the trend seems clear. Maybe there's more to all this than meets the eye?

[editor's note, by Prof. Goose]Look at Dave go with the Excel! Get on with your bad self, Dave...