Consumer Confidence and Gas Prices
Posted by Stuart Staniford on November 30, 2005 - 5:38am
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: consumer confidence, gas prices, hubbert peak, oil prices, peak oil [list all tags]
The Conference Board, a private research company, said that falling gasoline prices and an improved jobs outlook had lifted confidence in November to a reading of 98.9, up from 85.2 in October.Intrigued by the idea that gas prices are a major driver of consumer confidence, I wondered if the connection is really that strong. Militant empiricist that I am, I went and got the data...

Consumer Sentiment Index (left scale), and gasoline price in cents (right scale). Gas prices are nominal (ie not adjusted for inflation) due to laziness and difficulty finding long monthly CPI deflator series.
Just in case the situation was better at short range, I constructed month on month percentage changes and examined those. A short section of the plot is shown here (I didn't want to count on you having a 30" flat screen as I am fortunate to).

Month on month change in Consumer Sentiment Index and gasoline prices from Jan 200 to present. Gasoline prices are not adjusted for inflation, but this is probably negligible in month-on-month changes.
But, who's to say that this month isn't the one the 7% is showing up - hard to falsify the AP reporter altogether.




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