The December EIA Short-term Energy Outlook reports that total US energy demand has remained flat this year, but is expected to grow by some 2% next year.  Which is a cue to an observation.  In the discussion on demand destruction generated by increased fuel prices, the usual assumption has been that the poorer countries are the first that will see the impact.  But, as the recently changing situation in regard to US gas demand is starting to show, demand destruction will also happen here.  It is beginning with industries that depend on a cheap source of natural gas  for their feed stock.  To a degree it is not an absolute destruction yet. One imagines that the fertilizer shortage, generated as plants close in the US, will be met by new plants, built in countries that still have an abundance of natural gas.  The industries that rely on cheap feedstocks for plastic manufacture may well be next.  And as these industries leave, so the demand (and unfortunately also the employment) will decline with it. The EIA report anticipates that this drop in demand will be 7.5% this year, though they expect 4.6% of this to come back next year.

The EIA report is now predicting that by March some 0.66 bcf of GOMEX natural gas (6.5% of production) and 297,000 bd of GOMEX crude oil (19% of production) will still be shut-in relative to  the pre-hurricane status.  All three of refineries that are still down are anticipated to be on line at the end of February, bringing back some 804,000 bd of production, just in time for the end of the heating season.