The storm has been downgraded slightly to a Category 4 and just come ashore.  Power went out in New Orleans somewhere after 5 am, but the storm, as the moving graphic back shows, is now moving more East and will likely not pass directly over the city.  It may still top the levees, possibly at Lake Pontchartrain. However some of the rigs in the GOM saw the storm at Category 5.  Ivan dropped production by 0.5 mbd for months, it can be assumed that this will be worse.

Update [2005-8-29 5:32:18 by Prof. Goose]:Gulfport and Biloxi, MS will still get a very strong version of Katrina because the storm has not spent much time over land yet; NOLA does not suffer absolute worst of storm, but the hurricane is still stronger than Andrew at landfall...and their pumps have failed, which is a very bad development.

Update at 8:55 am (HO & J) From Reuters

The Gulf of Mexico normally pumps about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. crude, a quarter of domestic output and equivalent to nearly 2 percent of global oil production. The only way we can avoid yet higher prices is if President Bush releases supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Thurtell said The administration has said in the past it would release oil from the 700-million-barrel SPR only during a serious supply disruption, but has never given further details. "The Energy Department (DOE) is monitoring the situation," an administration official said in Washington. The DOE loaned out 5.4 million barrels last year after Ivan, which shut in a total 45 million barrels before full output was restored.

The LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Port)is closed, and if damaged, will cause supertankers to be rerouted to Houston, where they barely fit in the channel. If the levee system is busted up, the river might become so filled with silt from the water returning to the Gulf that it becomes un-navigable. And yes, all the refineries in Plaquemines Parish, Chalmette, and between NO & BR are very much at risk. But for the industrial damage, everyone will have to wait until the choppers can fly for the offshore damage report, and until the water recedes enough to let people back into the refineries.I just heard that the roof of the SuperDome was peeling off, and windows were busting in all over NO downtown area. But for the industrial damage, everyone will have to wait until the choppers can fly for the offshore damage report, and until the water recedes enough to let people back into the refineries. I did hear that two land rigs near Golden Meadow were already down, blown over. But we always set storm packers in the wells so there shouldn't be anything hosed up except the rigs. Our big ?'s are: 1) How many damaged platforms? What type damage? 2) Did we lose anymore rigs? 3) How badly is Port Fourchon damaged? (biggest service port for the oilfield) 4) Is the LOOP operable? 5) How many boats (crew boats, supply boats, seismic boats, cement boats, etc) are damaged or lost? 6) Refinery damage assessment.

Update [2005-8-29 7:16:22 by ianqui]: A picture from the New York Times, which is reporting 8 to 10 inches of floodwater right now. Still, 8 to 10 inches is better than the 20 feet they predict if there's a storm surge.

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