CERA Page (or is it year) 2 projects
Posted by Heading Out on September 8, 2005 - 8:21pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Well with due apologies to Rembrandt and others who have commented, I would like to get these sites into our record (since I can then come back and reference them later) before arguing too much on the reality that some of them reflect.
And so tonight we turn to the projects that CERA anticipate will come on line in 2006.
These are supposed to generate a total of 2.1 mbd by 2010 and they are:
- Buzzard, UK North Sea, is expected to produce between 180,000 and 190,000 bd by 2007. Rigzone has the details. CS has it for 180 kb. And there is a bit of the history here and more information.
- Bu Hasa which is in Abu Dhabi, or the United Arab Emirates, depending on which you choose to call it. The field will produce 730,000 bd but this is an increase from the current 550,000 bd so I guess we should count it at 180 kbd. CS has it for 250 kbd. Here is a bit of history.
- Erha is a Deepwater Nigeria project run by ExxonMobil who have the site information. It will produce 150,000 bd and is scheduled to start at the end of this year. CS has it for 150 kb starting this year.
- Atlantis is a Deepwater GOMEX Not far enough along to be affected by Katrina. Though other potential problems appear to have been addressed. CS has it down for 150 kbd.
- Dhalia is a Deepwater Angola project, run by Total that CS has down for 240 kbd. Finding information is a little harder, since the name can be spelt several ways. Current production is anticipated at 225,000 bd though there are negotiations to get it up to 240 kbd, and it appears on schedule for start-up in 3rd Quarter 2006. There is also some discussion of increasing this ultimately to 500,000 bd.
- Roncador II is Deepwater Brazil (at 1,800 m this is really deep). CS has this down to start in 2004, ramping up to 140,000 bd by 2008.
It is sometimes difficult to separate the bits of the Roncador program. in the Energy Bulletin for example, it is considered as a single development.
- Tengiz is in Kazakhstan and is a bit controversial. It currently produces about 290,000 bd and the EIA anticipates it will be up to 700,000 bd by 2010, for a gain of 410,000 bd. CS has it down for between 200 kbd and 450 kbd (cynic !)
- Haradh Phase III is at the Southern tip of the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, and Aramco are trying some of the latest technology here (maximum reservoir contact with concurrent waterflood, multi-laterals and "smart" wells that contain controllable valves, to minimize the water cut). It is scheduled for next year at 300,000 bd. (and CS has it down in the Potential Projects category at that level). We have previously discussed it, as has Matt Simmons in "Twilight in the Desert", where he worries about the rock structure.
- Sakhalin II is just off the island of that name just north of Japan (and we talked about Sakhalin 1 in the first of these). Shell is having some difficulty with this project (which I don't see on CS list) both politically and financially, and it appears slated for about 155,000 bd. It even has an opposition website as well as one of its own. EIA has it at 90,000 bd, which would fall below the CS watermark.
- Chinguetti is offshore Mauritania and is scheduled for 2006, but with a production of 75,000 bd, would also not make the CS cut. There is more information on the field here .
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