The new Mizushima LNG terminal in western Japan equally owned by Nippon
Oil Corp and Chugoku Electric Power received its first import cargo Monday
from Australia, a Nippon Oil spokesman told Platts.
     The 57,000mt test cargo would be consumed by Chugoku Electric at its
power plant in the vicinity, the spokesman said. The Mizushima LNG terminal,
located at the site of Nippon Oil's Mizushima refinery, would start commercial
operations in April, he added.
     The second LNG cargo for the Mizushima terminal is scheduled for arrival
in the second half of May, the spokesman said.

In late November UK gas prices spiked as high as 170p/th, five times the October average, as low imports of gas through the Belgium to UK Interconnector pipeline forced UK gas companies to meet demand with expensive gas supplies from storage instead. The pipeline never got more than two thirds full, and remained below even the 42-mil cu m/day forecast made by National Grid before the winter began, let alone the pipe's full 48-mil cu m/day capacity.
Ofgem is concerned that continental companies were holding back gas they could easily have supplied to the UK. Ofgem boss John Mogg wrote to the EC in November asking them to investigate whether continental companies were holding back their gas, or whether they genuinely had no spare gas.

In regard to oil, the fragility of the supply:demand balance is suggested by the sensitivity of prices to events in Nigeria and Iran. Currently the output from Nigeria is down over 100,000 bd due to delays in repairing a pipeline.  However the threat to "totally destroy the capacity of the Nigerian government to export oil" has led Shell to withdraw personnel.  This, apparently, does not affect the Deepwater operations and only 10% of the oil output that Shell gets from Nigeria.

Iran, on the other hand, is causing concern on two fronts.  Firstly there is the debate over the start-up of nuclear operations, with the possibility of sanctions from the West.  This may be an unpalatable choice, given the tightness of supply. However, given that Iranian oil mainly goes to Asia and Europe, may make it easier for the US to take a stronger stand.

However Iran is also talking about having OPEC reduce production of oil based on a projected supply surplus in the 2nd Quarter of this year.  Whether that is meant just to emphasize the threat they are making to protect their current position, or whether they really believe that the world will see that much difference is unclear.  The IEA  are predicting a growth in non-OPEC supply of 1.4 mbd and that OPEC will increase their other liquid supply by 0.4 mbd, and this is seen as a threat to the current oil prices.  Given, however, that there was more than enough oil, at the price that prevailed last year, so that production only increased 900,000 bd against the projected 1.4 mbd projected, we may be seeing that demand destruction will curtail the need for this production which, if sustained, will cause, on its own, a drop in price.

However as we keep discussing here, the reliability of the IEA in predicting production, given the potential supply disruptions already visible, is sufficiently weak that optimism is hard to sustain.  But I have been wrong before.