The gas supply situation is not getting much clearer
Posted by Heading Out on January 26, 2006 - 11:40pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: china, georgia, iran, natural gas, russia, saudi arabia, turkey [list all tags]
Iran had raised the gas it pumps to Turkey to 10 million cubic metres, still well short of the 26 million cubic metres a day previously agreed between the two neighbours.And so who is helping Turkey out (since it has reached the point that it is starting to close factories and redirect supplies). Remembering that Russia has had to reduce supplies to Europe, now for the eighth day, because of the severity of the temperature drops in Moscow and points East, guess who?Last week Iran cut the flow to 5 million cubic metres a day, but the supply subsequently rose to 8-10 million cubic metres before falling again to 5.48 million on Wednesday.
Iran says it had to reduce its exports because harsh winter weather has raised consumption at home.
Russia, the biggest supplier of natural gas to Turkey, has stepped in to help cover the shortfall.And, recognizing the threat to supply, Hungary and Croatia have signed agreements to install an LNG terminal on the Adriatic, and Poland is giving serious thought to the idea. (Which, apropos yesterday's post, will require even more tankers be built.) In the meanwhile Ukraine continues to take gas from the pipeline transiting gas to Europe, in quantities above the levels agreed.
Demand for crude into China is being projected as increasing by some 650,000 bd as new refineries come on stream. This will likely absorb a lot of the increase in production we might anticipate coming from the Middle Eastern members of OPEC. At the same time Saudi Arabia is helping to fund additional refineries capable of handling heavier crudes that are also more sour. Which is another comment on what oil will be coming from SA in the future.




k Nation (Jim Kunstler)






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