The new 13 month centered moving average makes for a nice smooth curve and shows the recent flatness in supply well. Readers are welcome to speculate about whether the break, when it comes, will be up or down.

There was a small frisson of excitement in checking the Saudi and Russian numbers (the two countries most important to the near-term peak oil debate). The EIA has them both down in January.

However, I really don't think we can conclude anything from this. Russia was affected by transitory problems due to cold weather in January. And as to Saudi Arabia: well the Joint Oil Data Initiative has January data for Saudi Arabia, and they reckon the production notched up in that month.

All in all, nothing very significant to report.

Finally, one last graph (a new one). This shows US imports of crude and petroleum products over the same time period as the other graphs (since January 2002). The graph is a four week moving average from the EIA. WesTexas has lately been raising the concern about world export capacity falling much faster than total production in the future. Not much sign of an issue at present (note that imports fall nearly every winter, and 2005 is exaggerated by the post hurricane import peak). However, if imports kept falling as we go into the summer, that would be something new.

Past coverage relevant to the plateau:

• Cigar Now?
• Missing Barrels
• Close, but no cigar
• November Statistics Updates
• IEA Monthly Report for December
• Refining the Plateau
• Can Acts of God and Bush Explain the Plateau?
• November IEA global production
• Happy Peak Oil Day?
• Where Supply Increases Come From

Other relevant coverage

• Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze
• Miles Data Predicts Big Economic Slowdown
• Why Peak Oil is Probably About Now