DrumBeat: August 8, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 8, 2006 - 9:10am
Topic: Miscellaneous
...The dispute centers on the precise timing of what is variously described as "peak oil" or "the big rollover"? the predicted date when existing oil production, together with new discoveries of crude, can no longer replenish the world's reserves as quickly as consuming countries are depleting them.[editor's note, by Prof. Goose] You may also want to check out Kurt Cobb's latest: Apocalypse always: Is the peak oil movement really just another apocalyptic cult?When that day comes, the price of oil will skyrocket to heights never seen before. It's simply supply and demand economics. It will be a climatic threshold signaling the beginning of the end of the oil era; a small span of time covering only a dozen decades of Homo Sapiens existence.
Criticism flies over BP's pipeline maintenance
Energy Dept. has oil reserves on standby
WASHINGTON - The Energy Department is prepared to provide oil from the government's emergency supplies if a refinery requests it because of the disruption of supplies from Alaska, a department spokesman said Monday.
Variety of crudes seen filling gap left by Prudhoe Bay outage
'Dead zone' threat to US suburban dream
Petrol price rises may cause the housing bubble to burst, triggering global recession and the fall of America's Eden, writes Paul Harris in New York
Deconstructing Daniel Yergin, the "Energy Pope"
Food prices would soar in biofuels switch, says Unilever
BRITAIN faces soaring food prices, a shortage of staple foods and declining public health if the Government pushes ahead with plans to promote the use of biofuels, the UK’s biggest food producer has given warning.Global warming may be killing palms
University of Florida scientists say widespread deaths of palms and other trees in low-lying coastal areas have been reported since 1992. But the researchers say their latest survey shows in some areas, 66 percent of mature palms have died since 2000....The researchers say rising sea level is the primary cause of the coastal forest decline. And the sea level rise -- expected to accelerate as the Earth becomes warmer -- is linked with the thermal expansion of water, as well as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.
As an unusually long and sweltering heat wave enveloped the traditionally mild San Francisco Bay Area, power outages knocked out air conditioning, and gas prices under $3.00 a gallon seemed like leisure suits or vinyl LPs, relics of a long forgotten era, those who have been warning of the consequences of global warming and the eventual decline of a fossil fuel-based life felt an awkward sense of vindication.Though some progressive icons like Greg Palast still try to write the peak oil movement off using incomplete research and fallacious arguments, increasingly people are awakening to the limits of a system that is utterly dependent upon a finite substance; a substance that is becoming uneconomical and is destroying the earth’s life-support network.
Murky world of western oil interests in Africa
US looks to wean Georgia from Russian energy
Russians prepare for African energy, mining push
[Update by Leanan on 08/08/06 at 12:08 PM EDT]
EIA raises oil forecast $3 a barrel
The government Tuesday raised its forecast for the average price of oil in August by $3 a barrel, citing July's heat wave and decreased production from the closure of BP's oilfield in Alaska's North Slope.The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the numbers arm of the Energy Department, said in its monthly energy forecast that oil is expected to average $76.50 a barrel in August, up from its prior forecasts of $73.50.



http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=1970
Delusional, isn't it? And consumers are following their lead. The blind leading the blind...
Gas prices don't put brake on SUV sales
Here's one pointing the other way:
Higher gas prices mean lower SUV sales
US Sales of Full-Size SUVs Continued Decline in March
Characteristic General Motors foresight and vision.
Suddenly it's 1976!
And, I believe studies during the Great Depression showed that people will give up everything possible before giving up their car or the gas for it.
Ever read Archie Comics? They were written about the high school experience in the 1920s. It was a given that high school students had a car if they wanted one, even if it was a beat up old T like Archie had.
http://www.archiecomics.com/news/pr060206_anniversary.html
Most of the inanimate items in the comics date from the 1940's (from black and white be-bops to roadsters and drive-ins).
Then, some "modern" things like drive-ins added to make it not seem too much of a nostalgia trip. Besides that, a lot of those things were first come up with in the 1920s. They just got big in the 1940s-50s.
any truth to whats in that link? I tried searching theoildrum for "gull island" and got nothing
I think its BS myself, I highly doubt anyone could sit on an oil reserve of any size and not do something about it at this point in history.
It sounds like the guy who claimed that there are gigantic oil reserves off the coast of Thailand that can power the world for hundreds of years. I expect more such silly announcements, especially if they can form a corporation outside the bounds US and European legal authority and get fools to invest.
On the other hand, if what GM says is true, this is just another reason why we need to raise gas to at least
$10 per gallon in advertised increments or institute a rationing system.
I wonder what the children of today will think about their gas guzzling parents and grandparents in about 30 years. Well, maybe by that time they will have learned to enjoy a fried planet without oil and lots and lots of coal.
It is statements coming from GM like this that justifies GM bashing to the max. They are counting on a phenomenon that will spell disaster for the United States and the people buying their vehicles. I do not wish them well.
I didn't, because I decided it wasn't really peak oil related.
However, those people are going to be in a heap of hurt when TSHTF. They're living off their savings, their home equity, and off government handouts now. Probably not things we should expect to continue in the post-carbon age.
I continue to wait and see if our US economy really can sustain growth with these oil prices ...
The set the government promotes to the public has a healthier bottom line: a $318 billion deficit in 2005.
The set the government doesn't talk about is the audited financial statement produced by the government's accountants following standard accounting rules"
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-02-deficit-usat_x.htm
If people don't have the money to spend, they can't buy efficiency upgrades. Between high debt levels, borrowing on the back of the now-deflating housing bubble, stagnant incomes, increasing inflation, the trade deficit, and future unfunded mandates, most people aren't going to have two sticks to rub together, much less ten grand to plunk down for a solar setup or twenty grand for a more efficient car.
Almost makes me think we're doomed... Woah, gotta go outside and get some sunshine quick!
In terms of "The One Percent Doctrine" and worrying about scales of problems with their associated probabilities ... I think recession is lower scale but much higher probability than collapse. And I think it is a mistake to only think of recession as a component of (the lower probability) collapse.
but also
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/07/25/ap/business/mainD8J34I5O2.shtml
A friend of mine was pulling money out of his house yearly and this last time got less, $20k instead of $50k. It's OK with him since he's figured out that he's not going to live to be 150 years old or something, and he'd rather pay payments that are about the same as rent would be, to keep living in his house that he's had forever. What's going to get interesting is when he can't pull anything out, since I think those house "withdrawals" are all he's really been living on.
So do you think the ARMS are not going to matter?
Also see "HELOCs"
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/31/real_estate/helocs_from_hell/index.htm
The nastiest is one called the "Option ARM" where you decide each month which of 3 options you're going to use to pay that month, the full regular payment, interest only, or some other thing that still allows the balance to grow and is the least out-of-pocket. Guess one the average overworked, overextended, American is going to most likely choose?
No, the ARMs are a huge problem and have been hugely instrumental in building up the bubble.
Everyone will begin the move back to fixed now (at a much higher rate) since that's what the commercials are saying they should do (funny it's the same companies that said "get an ARM" 4 years ago).
The corporations are experts at getting into the "consumer's" pocket... they've been getting much better as time goes on too.
No, I think his effect is going on, but unfortunately other negative effects are also happening at the same time ... increasing debt, etc.