DrumBeat: August 8, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 8, 2006 - 9:10am
...The dispute centers on the precise timing of what is variously described as "peak oil" or "the big rollover"? the predicted date when existing oil production, together with new discoveries of crude, can no longer replenish the world's reserves as quickly as consuming countries are depleting them.[editor's note, by Prof. Goose] You may also want to check out Kurt Cobb's latest: Apocalypse always: Is the peak oil movement really just another apocalyptic cult?When that day comes, the price of oil will skyrocket to heights never seen before. It's simply supply and demand economics. It will be a climatic threshold signaling the beginning of the end of the oil era; a small span of time covering only a dozen decades of Homo Sapiens existence.
Criticism flies over BP's pipeline maintenance
Energy Dept. has oil reserves on standby
WASHINGTON - The Energy Department is prepared to provide oil from the government's emergency supplies if a refinery requests it because of the disruption of supplies from Alaska, a department spokesman said Monday.
Variety of crudes seen filling gap left by Prudhoe Bay outage
'Dead zone' threat to US suburban dream
Petrol price rises may cause the housing bubble to burst, triggering global recession and the fall of America's Eden, writes Paul Harris in New York
Deconstructing Daniel Yergin, the "Energy Pope"
Food prices would soar in biofuels switch, says Unilever
BRITAIN faces soaring food prices, a shortage of staple foods and declining public health if the Government pushes ahead with plans to promote the use of biofuels, the UK’s biggest food producer has given warning.Global warming may be killing palms
University of Florida scientists say widespread deaths of palms and other trees in low-lying coastal areas have been reported since 1992. But the researchers say their latest survey shows in some areas, 66 percent of mature palms have died since 2000....The researchers say rising sea level is the primary cause of the coastal forest decline. And the sea level rise -- expected to accelerate as the Earth becomes warmer -- is linked with the thermal expansion of water, as well as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.
As an unusually long and sweltering heat wave enveloped the traditionally mild San Francisco Bay Area, power outages knocked out air conditioning, and gas prices under $3.00 a gallon seemed like leisure suits or vinyl LPs, relics of a long forgotten era, those who have been warning of the consequences of global warming and the eventual decline of a fossil fuel-based life felt an awkward sense of vindication.Though some progressive icons like Greg Palast still try to write the peak oil movement off using incomplete research and fallacious arguments, increasingly people are awakening to the limits of a system that is utterly dependent upon a finite substance; a substance that is becoming uneconomical and is destroying the earth’s life-support network.
Murky world of western oil interests in Africa
US looks to wean Georgia from Russian energy
Russians prepare for African energy, mining push
[Update by Leanan on 08/08/06 at 12:08 PM EDT]
EIA raises oil forecast $3 a barrel
The government Tuesday raised its forecast for the average price of oil in August by $3 a barrel, citing July's heat wave and decreased production from the closure of BP's oilfield in Alaska's North Slope.The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the numbers arm of the Energy Department, said in its monthly energy forecast that oil is expected to average $76.50 a barrel in August, up from its prior forecasts of $73.50.
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http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=1970
Delusional, isn't it? And consumers are following their lead. The blind leading the blind...
Gas prices don't put brake on SUV sales
Here's one pointing the other way:
Higher gas prices mean lower SUV sales
US Sales of Full-Size SUVs Continued Decline in March
Characteristic General Motors foresight and vision.
Suddenly it's 1976!
And, I believe studies during the Great Depression showed that people will give up everything possible before giving up their car or the gas for it.
Ever read Archie Comics? They were written about the high school experience in the 1920s. It was a given that high school students had a car if they wanted one, even if it was a beat up old T like Archie had.
http://www.archiecomics.com/news/pr060206_anniversary.html
Most of the inanimate items in the comics date from the 1940's (from black and white be-bops to roadsters and drive-ins).
Then, some "modern" things like drive-ins added to make it not seem too much of a nostalgia trip. Besides that, a lot of those things were first come up with in the 1920s. They just got big in the 1940s-50s.
any truth to whats in that link? I tried searching theoildrum for "gull island" and got nothing
I think its BS myself, I highly doubt anyone could sit on an oil reserve of any size and not do something about it at this point in history.
It sounds like the guy who claimed that there are gigantic oil reserves off the coast of Thailand that can power the world for hundreds of years. I expect more such silly announcements, especially if they can form a corporation outside the bounds US and European legal authority and get fools to invest.
On the other hand, if what GM says is true, this is just another reason why we need to raise gas to at least
$10 per gallon in advertised increments or institute a rationing system.
I wonder what the children of today will think about their gas guzzling parents and grandparents in about 30 years. Well, maybe by that time they will have learned to enjoy a fried planet without oil and lots and lots of coal.
It is statements coming from GM like this that justifies GM bashing to the max. They are counting on a phenomenon that will spell disaster for the United States and the people buying their vehicles. I do not wish them well.
I didn't, because I decided it wasn't really peak oil related.
However, those people are going to be in a heap of hurt when TSHTF. They're living off their savings, their home equity, and off government handouts now. Probably not things we should expect to continue in the post-carbon age.
I continue to wait and see if our US economy really can sustain growth with these oil prices ...
The set the government promotes to the public has a healthier bottom line: a $318 billion deficit in 2005.
The set the government doesn't talk about is the audited financial statement produced by the government's accountants following standard accounting rules"
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-02-deficit-usat_x.htm
If people don't have the money to spend, they can't buy efficiency upgrades. Between high debt levels, borrowing on the back of the now-deflating housing bubble, stagnant incomes, increasing inflation, the trade deficit, and future unfunded mandates, most people aren't going to have two sticks to rub together, much less ten grand to plunk down for a solar setup or twenty grand for a more efficient car.
Almost makes me think we're doomed... Woah, gotta go outside and get some sunshine quick!
In terms of "The One Percent Doctrine" and worrying about scales of problems with their associated probabilities ... I think recession is lower scale but much higher probability than collapse. And I think it is a mistake to only think of recession as a component of (the lower probability) collapse.
but also
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/07/25/ap/business/mainD8J34I5O2.shtml
A friend of mine was pulling money out of his house yearly and this last time got less, $20k instead of $50k. It's OK with him since he's figured out that he's not going to live to be 150 years old or something, and he'd rather pay payments that are about the same as rent would be, to keep living in his house that he's had forever. What's going to get interesting is when he can't pull anything out, since I think those house "withdrawals" are all he's really been living on.
So do you think the ARMS are not going to matter?
Also see "HELOCs"
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/31/real_estate/helocs_from_hell/index.htm
The nastiest is one called the "Option ARM" where you decide each month which of 3 options you're going to use to pay that month, the full regular payment, interest only, or some other thing that still allows the balance to grow and is the least out-of-pocket. Guess one the average overworked, overextended, American is going to most likely choose?
No, the ARMs are a huge problem and have been hugely instrumental in building up the bubble.
Everyone will begin the move back to fixed now (at a much higher rate) since that's what the commercials are saying they should do (funny it's the same companies that said "get an ARM" 4 years ago).
The corporations are experts at getting into the "consumer's" pocket... they've been getting much better as time goes on too.
No, I think his effect is going on, but unfortunately other negative effects are also happening at the same time ... increasing debt, etc.
We're not there yet, but you are right about slowing:
and
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20060808/cm_rcp/bears_on_the_prowl
That tipping point will come differently for different families, but a very key point is that it is based on cumulative debt a well as immediate prices. I think this is one of the keys to understanding the 70s. If in 74 they had not started rationing, we would have experienced the price increases only, and it would have been like today, with prices rising for everyone and debt increasing. Even with the rationing, *eventually* people ran out of money and debt available to cover the higher prices. However, it took a while, partly because unions were strong and could negotiate higher wages. It was also harder to increase your debt load back then. Today it's much easier to increase your debt, but much harder to increase your income.
Looks to me like the "tipping" point may take similar amounts of time and greater accumulated debt this time, but will be more economically devastating because of all that debt.
I could have swore Congress ended it, thats all.
I would say the tipping point was delayed by wage demands, at the cost of increasing inflation.
But the problem with von Mises (whom I love in my heart) is that he never learned to be concise. Another Austrian very close to my heart is Friedrich von Hayek, who wrote better than von Mises, and in my opinion will repay close study at a ratio of 10:1 in favor of Hayek and against the prolix von Mises. Not that there is anything wrong with Mises: He is erudite and fascinating, but he does go on and on and on and on.
My advice:
First read any 500 pages of Hayek. Then and only then go on to Mises.
BTW, one of my favorite Hayek books is,
"The Counter-Revolution of Science,"
in which Hayek points out that the imitation of physics in economics (and other social sciences) has led to bad results.
Enjoy,
http://marksparaglidingpages.com/index.php?action=news&newsid=188
One of those motors goes into Volume 2 of my science fiction series set in the near post-apocalyptic future.
Yeah, if electric motors work in models, why not scale them up?
Now when I go back, it's TimesSelect for me too. Maybe they are doing something strange like letting each person see it once? That would be weird though.
I cleared my private data (firefox), went back to the Tapped article, and then to the Times page. They asked me for my name/password, I put it in, and saw the story again.
Go back again and they want me to "TimesSelect."
Why not put an electric power plant between the burner and the vaporizer? Efficiency in combustion power plants is Carnot-limited by the cold sink... and LNG is extremely cold.
To keep the technology simple, use a standard power plant, with one additional turbine that transfers heat from the steam condenser to the methane vaporizer.
Methane has a boiling point of -161.6 C (111.6 K), but that's at atmospheric pressure, and it's delivered at higher pressure. So to be pessimistic, I'll assume it has to be warmed to the triple point, at 190 K. Even then, the energy recovery should be extremely good: Carnot efficiency between boiling water (373 K) and 190 K is 49%--and that's on top of all the energy extracted by a standard power plant. (Carnot between 373K and 111K is 70%.)
I found a description of an LNG gasifier that planned to use air-transfer towers to dump the coolth. It planned to gasify on average 1.5 BCF/day. OK, 1% of that is 21 MMCF/day which corresponds to about 250 MW times the near-1 efficiency of the power plant. That seems worth building a power plant for. (The towers would only provide sufficient warmth 9 months of the year, and they'd have to burn LNG to supplement the other 3.)
(Reposted, slightly modified, from a dead DrumBeat thread on Sunday.) http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/6/91051/08126#201
Chris
Looking at some DOE energy flow charts I saw that all the coal and nat gas used to generate electricity is nearly equal to the energy lost up the chimney and cooling towers.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-08-05T065522Z_01_N04263 323_RTRUKOC_0_US-LIFE-TAXIS.xml&WTmodLoc=Home-HeadlineTicker-topNews-10
And this big hole just for the spectacular look of it
http://www.sreedhara.com/2006/07/25/the-biggest-hole-in-the-world-great-photos/
BUT, I'm not sure we will ever reach it. Why? While I have considerable grounding in mathematics, I understand human nature even better. When I look at what's going on in the world right now -the 'logistic' problems, all the political games, I see the probability there for the oil economy to come down before we ever reach the geologic peak. It may not be a high probability -certainly not a certainty -but I it is there.
I have been thinking this very thing recently -- the Prudhoe situation is kind of random in this context, but Iraq, Nigeria, the new leverage Iran has... these are all symptoms of being near peak.
Apparently non-geological constraints start to show up in a big way when the peak is in view...
As I say, I think it's peak, but I think that's how I could be wrong.
2003--35,545 KBD
2004--37,149 KBD
2005--37,859 KBD
I was unable to find data for previous and current year(s). If monthly data for these years, including 2006 YTD, could be found, they would make an interesting graph. Remember, shut-ins by KatrinaRitas don't affect exports because that oil is used domesticly.
Of course, total crude exports could be broken down further by type and price, which I think is crucial. Top price would go to light, sweet crude; but, how much is available at that price and does it satisfy total demand or is some spare amount available. Then we have the question of longterm contracts that also governs the export market: How much of current exports aren't for sale since they've already been sold? I guess the main question is, how much oil is truely available on the spot market at its current price?
This is my "Peak Lite" scenario. The difference between this and a true geologic peak is that in theory, Peak Lite could be mitigated by bringing more production online. Geologic Peak can't be mitigated in this manner. But for most purposes, Peak Lite = Peak Oil, even if it is not necessarily permanent (yet). See my essay:
Peak Lite
An excerpt from the essay:
Not really. Any time you have a tight supply/demand situation, you have only a limited number of choices. You could leave prices where they are, and run out of product as demand increases. That is the "no rationing" scenario.
You can raise prices, which is rationing by price. The product is there for those who absolutely are willing to pay the price. As the price increases, product is rationed to those who are willing to pay the price. However, if you can't raise prices enough to stem the demand, you are still going to run out of product.
The final option is to keep prices low and just allocate a certain amount of product to each person. This is highly undesirable, because some people may be simply unable to cope at the present time with whatever ration they receive. They are the ones who are willing to pay almost any price for the product. The other bad thing about just flat out rationing is that it will cut deeply into profits which are needed for expansion of the business, or entering new markets.
I don't think that's economic voodoo talk.
Please check out my Sunday drumbeat post reporting some ethanol stories in local papers. It seems the news is changing its tune quite dramatically in "corn country". At first there was seldom a bad word about ethanol, lately there has gradually been more, and last Sunday was a well-done lengthy negative article about corn ethanol. I especially thought of VK when the last sentence of one quote was "If you invest in ethanol, you are investing in politics. Ethanol is made attractive only by federal policy." It prompted me to contact the editor for a job well done, as well as give him some information on PO and why the public needs to be informed for what is ahead, referencing the Chicago Tribune's story from the week before.
The geological peak is the BEST CASE production rate. There is no guarantee that we will reach it.
In order to reach it there has to be no limits on access to reserves to develop, access to territory to explore, technology restrictions, limits on availablilty of rigs, pipes, pumps, experienced personnel, physical safety of workers, pipelines and tankers to move the product, refineries to process product, etc. etc.
When we have considered cases like East Texas, we very nearly approached ideal conditions, and were thus limited by the geology. I doubt that we will be so lucky for the world's peak.
Lucky? What is this lucky of which you speak?
Seriously, a quick approach to geological peak would be the worst thing, because it would be followed by a similarly quick decline. A slow approach, moderated by geopolitics and other factors, will hopefully give us a plateau of extended high (but not extraordinary) oil prices. Given our tendency to wait until we're actually in pain before doing anything to prevent pain, a long moderately painful plateau seems like our best chance for avoiding a crash.
Army on tap for water riots
Local aquifers are being hit hard for three reasons: a drought; increased demand as a result of more and more homes being built in rural areas and increased demand for water from operators drilling Barnett shale wells.
A water well driller described a conversation he had with the proud new owner of a McMansion:
Driller: You have to cut back on your water use. You are watering your lawn every day.
McMansion Owner: I just spent $2,000 on landscaping. I"m not going to let it die.
Driller: If your water well goes dry, you won't have a house that you can live in.
McMansion Owner: Just tell me how I can get more water.
(In other words, hell no I won't cut back. Just tell me how to get more natural resources.)
That cat has some major personality quirks.
i have a cat that likes to watch the faucet of the bathtub for water drops which then she trys to get at. she also likes to lick up pools of water on the bottom of the shower and i have caught her once gnawing at the faucet. she also loves to be in the bathroom when you take a shower but not in the tub.
Just put Perrier on that lawn.
Wonder where the cutoff is between building and running a desalination plant and using tankers?
How about some supertankers with russian nuclear powerplants ferrying water between Norway or Sweden and GB and containers above deck?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aK.wnuufYLSM&refer=latin_america
During the 1967 Arab/Israeli War, the Arab oil producers tried an oil embargo, which failed because the Texas RRC opened the taps and flooded the market with oil. When the 1973 war and embargo rolled around, Texas was at the start of its long decline and couldn't do anything about the embargo.
Mathematically, based on the HL method, Saudi Arabia last year was at the same point at which Texas peaked, and note that Saudi Arabia could not increase production to make up for shortfall due to the hurricanes, and the IEA and the US had to do the largest ever coordinated release of emergency reserves.
In other words, emergency reserves are now serving as the new "swing producer."
If I am not mistaken, last year's release of oil from the US SPR has not been replaced, and we are already talking about another release. See a pattern here?
Shows releases related to Katrina (going back 1 year)
FYI
Seeing the sweet/sour breakdown is very enlightening. Do you have links to older reports, to see how the sweet/sour ratio is changing?
I guess even the government doesn't have the '3 month emergency fund' they encourage us to have.
The Israeli military dropped leaflets today over the southern Lebanese city of Tyre, warning of stepped-up operations and urging people not to drive. One leaflet said, "All cars and of any type will be shelled if seen moving south of the Litani River."
So I guess Israel has decided that any living human in S. Lebanon is Hezbollah. sick, sick shit...
Angry Chimp, thanks for the link to Galloway's "interview" yesterday. Speaking truth to power is a dangerous thing, I wouldn't want to be one of his bodyguards...And what a beautiful example that is of the workings of media propaganda!
Sickening, isn't it? It seems that genocide and colonialism are right back in vogue, due in no small part to resource scarcity.
FYI, this war is over the water in the Litani River, not Hezbollah. That's just a conveinent excuse to take over the half of Lebanon with actual water supplies.
Webster's defines genocide thus: the deliberate and systematic destruction of a racial, political, or cultural group
Regardless of what one might think of Israel's activities in Lebanon, it seems a bit glib to label it with the g-word.
But I find your remark about the Litani River intriguing. Before I heard about PO, I'd been expecting one of the next big wars there to be over water. So how much water are we talking about here?
As for Lebanon, they are at the very least guilty of committing atrocious war crimes. They have bombed not only Hezbollah fighters, but every major road in the country, destroyed every bridge, hit factories, hospitals, schools, churches, mosques, residential complexes, etc. The UN observers post they destroyed had been there for 40 years. They had given multiple assurances that it would not be bombed, the UN had repeatedly reminded them it was there, it was clearly marked, and during the attack on the facility, the UN commending general in the region told them TEN times they were bombing a UN post and to stop immediately. They did not. They have been deliberately attacking civilians; in the more sickening incidents, they have told the civilian population to leave an area, and then deliberately bombed cars loaded with civilians and with white bedsheets/flags on them. Also, they have said certain places would be safe for civilians, and then bombed them when large numbers gathered there. And on and on and on. I'm not trying to demonize Isreal -far from it -but they have been doing incredibly reprehensible things.
As for the water issue, in Gaza and the West Bank, annual water per person is below 100 cubic meters; the minimum to not be considered water scarce is 1000 cubic meters. Isreal and the Palestinians both draw their water from the West bank aquifiers, which in recent years have been drawn down much faster than they can be replinished. (Incidentally, the Israelis have forbidden the Palestinians from drilling new wells for years, and the water table has now dropped below the wells they do have, so they are facing a very, very critical water shortage there.) Now that the water table has fallen so low, Isreal too is facing a very severe water shortage, and has considered it of supreme national interest to 'secure' water supplies. The Litani River in Lebanon is the nearest, most dependable source of water that the Isreal could tap -if they have control over it. (See Box 5-1 in Chapter 5 of the 2005 State of the World report for more info on the water situation in this area.)
Lets get real though. I won't delve into Jew & Arab debates. This is a people debate. If there are identifiable races that categorically hate me & want to eliminate me for the very simple fact that my family history is traced back to G. Kahn, then I shall not sit idly.
I had a Rambo wannabe dad and he managed to teach me to defend myself. The point to defending myself is so that you can not longer harm me. If you punch me, I intend to punch you so hard and so many times that you will never again try me. And if you got a few extra guys, I'm not dumb, I'm getting my backup too. And if there are people who support them, they must pay too. I could care less that some people can't stand the brutish part of life, but I've only got one shot at it. Survival instincts trumpt a whole lot IMO.
And I find it most ironic that the greatest struggles fought for are based in religion.
That should work for today....
Fleam,
You are the on throwing around anti-semitic comments of late, what about his post had any thing to do with fascism or nazism?
matt
Isn't this a wonderful new world? Merely describing what's going on is "Anti-Semitic".
Go read Israel Shamir a while and come back later k?
Although I see your logic:
Nonguided rocket aimed at civilian populace=pebble breaking window.
Retaliation strikes at military targets hidden inside (illegally) civilian populace=beating children and women.
You are enlightened fleam, I hope one day I can have the wisdom and insight you possess. Hopefully I can have a smidge of that positive mental outlook too.
So, you haggle out a trade, make the exchange, and next time have your soldiers stay the heck out of other people's land so they don't get kidnapped. Easy.
But no, Israel's solution is kind of a final one, isn't it? Yeah, the g-word fits.
As for Gibson, I love him - he's been pissing off the Hollywood establishment for years. I don't know if he said those things, mainly he's an idiot for driving around drunk - he should do his jail time or do his Community Service, cleaning up a local park picking up cigarette butts, lol. It sounds like the blatherings of a drunk, and he should get the full punishment for his drunk driving, not for whatever he supposedly said about God's Pets, sheesh! I go to the local library way in the back or some places and I can hear all kinds of choice things about white people, and my reaction is "Yeah, whatever".
What happens to Israel now, if her backups falter?
I think it was a warning by Gandhi, that the way we took on Hitler had sadly guaranteed that we would only end up fighting a thousand more Hitlers..
And don't think that those precision weapons (supplied by US taxpayers) can't nail a moving vehicle...
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2006/07/25/MNGJCK4N0A1.DTL&o=0
bullseye!
I don't think that's necessarily true. Remember that to destroy a tank, you don't need to take it completely apart. That would be very inefficient use of energy. In fact, anti-tank missiles and shells are designed to carry a shaped charge which upon impact produces a highly directed explosion. The idea is to punch a narrow hole through the armor and fill the soft, vulnerable insides of the tank with a shower of shrapnel and molten metal with the goal of killing the crew and/or causing critical damage to the tank's systems. In the absence of a heavily armored target, the shaped explosion might just pass straight through the ambulance (no ricocheting, most of the energy going into the ground), leaving it and the passengers relatively unharmed.
Since I'm no expert in these matters, my theory above might well be wrong. The location of the hole, however, is far simpler to explain. Modern tanks have their heaviest armor in the front with thinner armor in the sides. The thinnest armor is in the rear and top (the crew hatches, for example, are usually located on top of the tank). Therefore, from the point of view of an attack helicopter, the most certain way to knock out a tank is to hit the top armor. And guess what? That's exactly how, for example, AGM-114 Hellfires work. Here's what their flight trajectory looks like: http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/hellfire-trajectory1.gif . That hole is exactly where it should be, if the ambulance in fact was hit by an anti-tank missile.
I'm not a military vet, but I do have the advantage of having toyed with high-tech military hardware since I was 10 years old. Helicopters, jet fighters, nuclear submarines, space shuttles; I've mastered them all... in PC simulations, at least. :)
CNN/FOX/MSNBC are all focusing on Lebanon being bombed, the daily struggle they must endure. Making this all look like it's Israels fault and Lebanon the victim. When infact Lebanon is the victim not because of Israel, but Hezbollah.
Bear in mind that Iran has been making threats to Israel for awhile now. Iran wants to attack Israel, but instead is doing it through Hezbollah. Iran is supplying Hezbollah the arms to attack Israel.
The diplomacy between the nations involved will amount to nothing, and if anything will only make the "powder keg" bigger.
But how does forcing us to listen to your continuous inane, uneducated and one-sided ranting in every topic thread help at all.
The only thing you have convinced me of is the need for an "ignore" function.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14406.htm
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_4139442
But you bring up something interesting... would they believe in shepherding domestic reserves? I mean, they don't have to believe everything Bartlett believes. They could very well believe that peak is near and the best thing to do is to drill like mad and maximize for short term gain to keep the house of cards from falling while waiting for the techno-fairy to deliver us salvation. That or just plain disbelief are the most likely candidates IMO.
There's a lot of confirmation bais at work. For aparachiks that would probably be a bias that their world would continue, just as some of us here have the opposite bias.
None of which is consistent with long-term planning. We've been mortgagin our collective futures for present gains.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Global oil production capacity is set to increase by
as much as 25% over the next decade, enough to meet rising demand, according
to an updated report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
In an overview of a detailed, field-by-field May 2005 analysis of the oil
industry, the Cambridge, Mass.-based consultancy said that world oil
production capacity is expected to increase to 110 million barrels a day in
2015 from 88.7 million barrels a day in 2006, with the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries accounting for 60% of the growth.
More on this from Yergin -- seems to avoid specifics. Not sure if this interview was posted. Given to Der Speigel last month:
Yergin: I think the shock of demand from China has passed now. In 2004 we had this amazing 16 percent growth in Chinese consumption. But now the focus is shifting to supply. We are currently experiencing a slow-motion supply shock, the aggregate disruption of more than 2 million barrels per day. This has a lot to do with the unrest in Nigeria, but also with the production loss after the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the decline in Iraq since the 2003 war, and the decline in Venezuelan output since 2002. So today we're standing at a historic juncture: After a quarter century, the great cushion of oil surplus production capacity that was created after the turbulences of the 1970s has been largely spent.
Spiegel: Is the current scarcity just a question of capacity or also one of geology? There are quite a few experts who believe that global production will reach a peak soon and decline fairly rapidly.
Yergin: This is not the first time the world has run out of oil. It is more like the fifth. Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil. We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s. People always underestimate the impact of technology. To give you an example: In the 1970s the frontier for offshore development was 200 meters, today it is 4,000 meters.
Spiegel: But even the most sophisticated technologies have not been able to stop the decline in fields like the ones in the North Sea.
Yergin: The North Sea was supposed to run out in the 1980s. Then in the 1990s. And now production is still on-line. Nobody thinks that oil supply is infinite, but the point is: The sky is not falling. We have done a worldwide field-by-field-analysis of exploration projects, which indicates that the production capacity could increase by as much as 20 to 25 percent over the next decade, including greater output of nontraditional sources like Canadian oil sands, and increased recoverability from existing wells.
Spiegel: So the whole idea of peak oil is nonsense?
Yergin: The image is misleading. A more relevant description would be a plateau in production capacity that might be reached in the fourth or fifth decade of this century. So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.
Spiegel: Isn't it getting more and more difficult and expensive for oil companies to find new resources?
Yergin: Absolutely. The offshore oil costs went up 68 percent since 2000. And there is also the bottleneck in human resources: We had a CEO of one of the supermajors speak at a conference in Houston, and just as he finished speech, he said with a smile "Would everybody please leave their resumes by the door!" But eventually it's a question of access: Getting access to fields is on top of the oil companies' agenda. We see a substantial build-up of supply occurring over the coming years. But, after 2010, that growth is concentrated in a fewer number of countries, this is what is causing the unease and is accentuating security concerns.
Spiegel: Because it makes consumer countries more dependent and vulnerable.
Yergin: The importers really need to think about how to manage the energy security question. Inevitably, there will be new shocks to the market. Some disruptions may be roughly foreseeable, such as coordinated attacks by terrorists or turmoil in Latin America that affects the output. Some may come as a surprise: Nobody anticipated the devastation the storms would wreak on the facilities in the Gulf of Mexico last summer.
Spiegel: What can the industrialized nations do to ensure energy security?
Yergin: First, we have to find a common vocabulary for energy security. This notion has a radically different meaning for different people. For Americans it is a geopolitical question. For the Europeans right now it is very much focused on the dependence on imported natural gas. The starting point for energy security today as it has always been is diversification of supplies and sources.
Spiegel: What does that require?
Yergin: It means investing in new technologies. It's extraordinary how inventive one can be with ethanol right now. Within four or five years the US might be getting 10 percent of its gasoline from ethanol -- that would be like creating a new Indonesia. Even Silicon Valley investors have put well over a $1 billion in new energy technologies. But that's not enough: To maintain energy security, one needs a supply system that provides a buffer against shocks. It needs large, flexible markets. And it's important to acknowledge the fact that the entire energy supply chain needs to be protected.
I'd say he's just Yergin' us all off.
Yergin: This is not the first time the world has run out of oil. It is more like the fifth.
"
You just have to give him points for this though!
Sometimes it is better to be consistently wrong than to appear uncertain or (Heaven Forbid!) change one's mind as new evidence comes in.
Some people will pay for consistently good news, just as others gladly pay for fifty years of uninterrupted "doom and gloom" news.
You should'a seen some of those gold bug newsletters back in the fifties--just hilarious with the benefit of hindsight. With a few changes (Insert "Peak Oil" in place of "Soviet gains" or "World War III") these fifty year old newsletters appear to be alive and well today.
Oh, did I already reveal the secret? Gold is going to $2,000 and ounce, money is about to become worthless, and Ben Bernnake is a Secret Socialist who desires the Destruction of Capitalism through Hyperinflation.
The FED has been so successful our money is now worth less than 5¢ compared to when they started managing for us.
However, nothing succeeds like excess;-)
-Yogi Berra
Someone is smoking funny weed up in Cambridge and I think his name starts with "Daniel" and ends with "Yergin".
Or maybe Freddy can explain how CERA concludes that 2006 is 88.7 mbpd?
Still short by 2.0/mbd -- rounding up, of course!
There was a shopkeeper, recounting his week..
"Well, noone came in Monday, Tuesday a fellah bought a rake; saw some tourists on Wednesday, but they didn't spend nuthin', Thursday, the guy returns the rake, and it was quiet Friday. I quess I'd have to say Tuesday was my best day."
84.527 (EIA) + 2.300 (disruptions) = 86.827
but
86.827 - 0.400 (Alaska) = 86.427
Ok, we're short 2.27/mbd. Damn! We're going backwards!
It was
84.4 (EIA) + 2.3 (disruptions) + 2.0 (Saudi spare capacity)
= 88.7 total current capacity
The only problem is that this "spare capacity" never materializes, no matter what the disruption or how high oil prices rise. CERA talks about this spare capacity in nearly every print article in which it is quoted. But what evidence is there that it even exists?
AMLO protesters take over tollbooths, Federales discussing how to remove them:
Mexico's Peso, Bonds Drop as Lopez Obrador Steps Up Protests
-------------------
The taking of toll booths is ``the first incident of breaking laws in Mexico and the market starts to inevitably price in a bit more political risk,'' she said.
---------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
WSJ: Scholar Warns Iran's Ahmadinejad May Have 'Cataclysmic Events' In Mind For August 22
Favorite Bumper Sticker
http://wired.com/wired/archive/14.08/colbert.html
South Africa: Hendricks warns of water shortages
Former Soviet leader Gorbachev says water, energy shortages could cause wars
Mediterranean farming risks water shortages
Water shortages as Sweden swelters
Water shortages in Croatia hurting tourism
Sierra Leone capital hit by worst water shortages in decades
Lebanon: UN Says Water, Fuel Shortages Threaten the Country with Epidemics
Washington Insight: EPI Warns of Increasing Stress on World Water Supplies
Qld Cabinet considers water 'state of emergency'
from the end of this page:
http://www.energybulletin.net/19017.html
Parts of Missouri, Illinois are withering under drought conditions
By Phillip O'Connor
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
08/08/2006
(snip)
For the second year in a row, large sections of the Midwest, including parts of Missouri and Illinois, are withering under drought conditions.
For some western Missouri counties, January through July were the sixth driest since 1889.
Experts at the National Climatic Data Center predict that drought-related losses this year will again top $1 billion, making it one of the nation's costliest weather disasters of 2006. The intense heat of recent weeks only makes matters worse.
(snip)
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/stlouiscitycounty/story/B09A7A1EC63B0089862571C400 5292E4?OpenDocument
that ranks up there with the one that says oil company's are keeping zpe from the public.
or the government has a village with all super high tech they are keeping from the people.
Company Targets 100M Gallon Per Year Sugar Ethanol Plant in California.
Subject to financing :)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5255444.stm
Blind Date
by Efraim Halevy
The New Republic
Post date 08.03.06 | Issue date 08.14.06
As fighting between Israel and Hezbollah entered its third week, a senior Iranian representative named Ali Larijani arrived in Damascus, where he apparently talked with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. A Kuwaiti newspaper reported that the aim of the meeting was to figure out how to keep supplying Hezbollah with Iranian arms. But my guess is that Larijani also carried a sobering message from his superiors in Tehran: The longer this fight drags on, the greater the risk to Iranian interests in the Middle East.
Iran's president has publicly called for a cease-fire, and with good reason. Before Hezbollah attacked Israel, this summer was shaping up to be a promising geopolitical moment for Iran. In late May, Condoleezza Rice announced an about-face on U.S. policy toward the pariah state. With Washington signaling that it was ready to engage, Iran seemed on a path to eventually negotiating an understanding with the West, perhaps exchanging its nuclear program for some level of international acceptance. The deal would almost certainly have delivered what Iran has long coveted: widely acknowledged status as a regional power. But, whereas Iran was operating from a position of strength just one month ago, it now looks weaker by the day. It does not much matter whether Tehran seriously miscalculated by ordering Hezbollah to instigate this war or whether Hezbollah acted unwisely on its own. Either way, the terrorist organization that serves as an extension of Iranian power in the western Middle East is now in danger of emerging badly damaged from this conflict, and that is troublesome news for Tehran. Fortunately, Iran's sudden weakness is Israel's newfound opportunity. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government should seize this moment to do what would have been unthinkable just weeks ago: negotiate with Iran face to face.
To understand why Iran might be willing to do this now, you have to understand just how worried it is about losing Hezbollah--or seeing the group's power severely curtailed. For more than 20 years, Hezbollah has produced rich dividends for Iran in return for a relatively modest investment. In its infancy, it more or less singlehandedly chased the United States out of Lebanon by bombing the U.S. Embassy and carrying out an attack that killed 241 American troops. During the 1980s, Hezbollah kidnapped a number of Western citizens and held them for ransom. The negotiations to win their release were torturous, and, at one stage, senior American officials offered to sell arms to Iran as part of the deal. The result was the Iran-Contra scandal. Later, with the help of Iranian intelligence, Hezbollah blew up the Israeli embassy and the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. All these activities--and the publicity that accompanied them--enhanced Hezbollah's prestige, both inside and outside Lebanon.
But it was on Lebanon's border with Israel where Hezbollah would truly earn its credentials in the Arab world. Starting in the early '90s, Iran and Syria decided to transform the organization into a highly effective guerrilla force. The group harassed Israeli troops policing the southern Lebanon security zone, and it was able to claim credit for then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak's withdrawal in 2000. Arabs throughout the Middle East greeted this development as the first time an Arab force had used violence to induce a major Israeli pullback from occupied territory. Building on this success, Syria and Iran would go on to arm Hezbollah with more than 10,000 rockets and missiles capable of targeting large areas of northern Israel. And, even as it was transforming into one of the region's most powerful military forces, Hezbollah was also strengthening its political arm by participating in elections: Two ministers in Lebanon's current government are Hezbollah representatives.
In sum, Hezbollah is no small achievement for Iran: a highly accomplished Shia guerrilla force flourishing on Lebanese soil, in the heart of the Arab-Sunni Muslim world. It is led by a brilliant political and spiritual leader who defers to Ayatollah Khaminei in Tehran and augmented by an independent Iranian military presence in Lebanon. All of this is cloaked in the legitimacy provided by Hezbollah's democratic participation in Lebanese politics and popularity with segments of the Lebanese people. What more could the mullahs hope for? Actually, things might only have gotten better. The Shia community, which makes up about 40 percent of Lebanon's population, could ultimately have gained control of the country, enabling Iran to establish a forward operational base on the eastern shores of the Mediterranean and improve its access to Muslim communities in the Balkans and the sizeable Shia community in Turkey. Until last month, Iran's prospects in Lebanon looked favorable indeed.
Now all could be lost overnight. True, as many commentators have pointed out, Hezbollah might emerge strengthened from this conflict. An effective draw in the present hostilities would be perceived in the Middle East as a spectacular success for Hezbollah, and it would contribute greatly to Iranian prestige. The dangers of such an outcome cannot be overstated: Growing self-confidence in Tehran could further encourage Iranian interference in Iraq or even entice the mullahs to reach out to the Shia minority in Saudi Arabia. Most disturbingly, it could jeopardize any chance that the West might convince Iran to suspend its nuclear program.
Yet there is good reason to believe that Iran will be weakened by this war. Hezbollah has so far sustained losses far greater than those to which it admits. Its basic infrastructure has been mauled, and it has almost certainly concealed the deaths of senior commanders in the field. Meanwhile, the group has been forced to accept a plan put forward by Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora intended to lead to its eventual disarmament. Its missile launches--designed to provoke fear in northern Israel--have not weakened the resolve of the Israeli public to see the war through. Nasrallah has acknowledged that morale within his group is suffering. His decision to fire missiles with escalating payloads and greater range deeper and deeper into Israel could be seen as an act of hubris on his part, but I suspect it is instead an act of desperation. Hezbollah's long-range missiles are its weapons of last resort. Once they are launched, and once Israel has withstood them and continued to fight, Nasrallah will have no other cards left to play.
All of which explains why Iran, desperate to avoid losing Hezbollah as an effective surrogate, might be willing to sit down with Israel and negotiate. But why should Israel negotiate with Iran? It is true that Israel must be seen to unequivocally defeat Hezbollah on the ground. But such a defeat cannot be made to stick without the true adversary in this conflict accepting the outcome; Hezbollah, after all, is a mere proxy, and its most important decisions are made by others to the east. For one thing, there is the matter of the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers: Israel cannot stop fighting until it has won their freedom, and, if previous experience with Hezbollah and kidnapping is any guide, their release will have to be authorized by Iran. Moreover, any cease-fire that does not include Syria and Iran will not last long. The government of Lebanon can assure Israel that Hezbollah will not be resupplied with weaponry, but such an agreement cannot really be guaranteed without Syrian and Iranian compliance. Thus, negotiation with Syria and--especially--Iran is the only way to achieve the results that Israel needs from this war.
To be sure, there are serious barriers to such negotiations. Iran does not recognize Israel's right to exist, and its president has said that the Jewish state must be erased from the map. But, if Iran and Syria do not cooperate, then the conflict will either continue or be briefly postponed to a later date. Tehran and Damascus cannot accept either option. And, for Israel, anything less than clear success on the battlefield accompanied by political negotiations with Iran and Syria will be an exercise in self-delusion. Which is why, in the days to come, Israel would be wise to sit down at the negotiating table and talk to its most bitter enemies. And it would be in the interest of the United States to join them.
What would such negotiations look like? The agenda would begin with a focus on peace in southern Lebanon--Iran and Syria would have to agree to restrain Hezbollah, while Israel would promise to cease its attacks--but negotiations need not end there. The elephant in the room is Tehran's nuclear program, and, while that issue would not be resolved immediately, beginning the dialogue is, for now, more important than obtaining quick results.
Such talks may sound like an impossibility given the current climate; indeed, it is entirely possible that an outstretched hand from Israel and the United States would be slapped away by Tehran. But, if that happens, then Iran risks embarking along a path that could lead to national disaster. Tehran knows this, so there is a chance it will seize any opportunity to salvage an honorable exit from the situation. Thanks to events in Lebanon, the odds of Iran sitting down at the bargaining table and making major concessions are better now than they have been in a long time.
EFRAIM HALEVY is head of the Center for Strategic and Policy Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the author of Man in the Shadows: Inside the Middle East Crisis with a Man Who Led the Mossad.
Notice how the US media these last few weeks is being completely saturated with either imported or homegrown pro-Israel/anti Iran propaganda.
The idea is to con the American people into believing that what's good for Israel is good for the US and that Israel's enemies should be our enemies.
And whatever you do, don't advocate boycotting Israel, you can't do that in the US, it's illegal! Look it up, it's in US Federal law, get you put in prison and fined $10,000 shekels, er, dollars, for each time.
I wonder if they took global warming into account when they designed this...
They don't have to take peak oil into consideration, because islands (literally, in this case) of extreme affluence will probably become more common as the polarization between the haves and have-nots becomes more extreme. There will always be enough oil for the super rich (even if they have to make sure that no one else gets any).
It is ordinary US middle-class suburbia that is going to get clobbered when peak oil becomes manifest, not these extravagant fantasies as in Dubai. Don't forget that some very large mansions were built in the US during the 1930s. Pain is seldom distributed evenly.
I'm a Hawai`i girl, and I love the beach. I grew up on the water. But I'd really think twice about investing in oceanfront property these days.
Of course, given the heat, I may want to retire further north. I wonder if Lake Superior has any teeny-tiny little islands...
The problem is the population density, especially on the main island, Oahu. Something like 80% of population lives there (and no, it's not the largest island). That is usually the problem with islands.
I love Hawaii, and almost all my family is there. But I'm really hesitant to move back home. I think it's going to be very nasty indeed when TSHTF. Personally, I think Jay Hanson is bloody insane for moving to my hometown of Kona. (Not as congested as Oahu, but it's getting there. And it has far fewer resources, such as water and arable soil, with which to support the population. Indeed, it's already undergone an Easter Island-like deforestation, though few realize it. They think it's always looked like that.)
Lat 25.119072°
Lon 55.132913°
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=25.119072,%2055.1329138&output=kml
The Palm-Tree island is clearly visible from an altitude of 60 miles in space.
Just two miles to the east is the Burj al-Arab Hotel, the tallest, most luxurious hotel in the world where Andre Agassi and Roger Federer played their famous Helicopter-pad match. (Click on link for photos)
Lat: 25.141185°
Long: 55.185349°
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=25.141185,%2055.185349&output=kml
But I don't think Dubai will be having any problems with global warming.
Dubai's faux ski mountain will offer snow in 120-degree heat
Yes, that's right, an indoor 1300-foot trail with 200-foot vertical drop, cooled by 23 massive air-conditioners. I'm not making this up.
As of right now we have two production lines making Mack and Volvo trucks. On the Volvo line we are building about 3000 trucks a month. We are at max production and this will last until Feb. of next year. At that time I will have a nice long vaction for awhile. This kind of up and down production has been the norm for years. In years past nothing really changed at the plant on a down turn except there were fewer people working. Now things are changing. What they are telling us is that sometime after the first of the year there will no longer be two production lines. Mack and Volvo will be built on one line. All the outside work will be moved in house. Things like axle build up and engine build up. Stuff that is built up outside of our plant so we can build 3000 trucks a month.
Now the reasons given to us is that moving all this work in house will save jobs and I believe this to be true. I would guess that this make enough extra work to save 300 to 500 jobs at Volvo. The other reason given is that it will save money on shipping all those parts to outside factorys and then shipping it all the way back to Volvo. Makes sence to me. Cut out the middleman.
This leaves me with just one question and I think it relates to $100 dollar oil and peak oil. How the heck are we going to build 3000 trucks a month if we have cluttered up our production space with parts that use to be built up somewhere else, and with one production line? We can't. I think Volvo knows that the days of building 3000 trucks a month are long gone and are ahead of the rest of the pack once again.
Your insider info is much appreciated, we love the "feet on the street" perspective.
For instance, for years we in the public have been laboring under the misapprehension that Volvo is a Swedish company. Now we learn it's Swiss. I've been considering getting an old 240 wagon, and it's nice to know the thing will be Swiss not Swedish, since I like Swiss Army Knives and that cheese with the holes. I just hope the old Volvo I plan to pick up cheep turns out to be handy like the knife and not holey (and a bit smelly) like the cheese!
(joking!!)
Actually Volvo trucks is Swedish. If I remember right Mack were bought with money from selling the car business to Ford. Glad to hear that they finally is consolidating the models to run their business more like Scania, their Swedish arch enemy that they also bough a large part of with those money but EU blocked a merger.
Sweden wera ahead of everybody in the 70:s and some think we still are. Nowdays Denmark has better jobs policies, Norway better economy byt they are cheating by pumping up some kind of black goo :) and Finland have better schooling, defence, energy and industrial policies. Hmm, you might be right, Switzerland is better.
Do you know when Volvo will start to series produce their hybrid drivetrains?
Its mostly intended for busss and trucks in city traffic where it is expected to save 35% of the fuel.
Its a parallell hybrid with a combined starting engine, electrical engine and alternator between the clutch and the mechanical gearbox. Auxilary functions such as preassurised air, hydraulic servo, AC and so on will be electrified to make them more controllable and efficient.
And it will use a new lighter and cheaper lead accumulator from www.effpower.se
Scania is testing a series hybrid for busses with no mechanical connection between the combustion engine and the drive train and super capacitors instead of accumulators.
And the next generation of armoured wehicels called SEP for our military will be a series hybrid with two compact high RPM car diesel engines but I have not heard anything about what kind of battery it will use. It has been running as a prototype for 2-3 years and I think it is on the second generation of prototypes now. The project has been delayed to be syncronized with a Brittish effort.
There is also at least one successfull prototype for a hybrid forestry wehicle to get timber from the forests out to roads. Since it lacks a mechanical drivtrain it can be built lighter and get a larger load per ton of wehicle.
Heavy hybrids are soon of the shelf technology.
Found this on Volvo web site:
Was it on May 11, 1915? The day when AB Volvo submitted an application to have the trade mark 'Volvo' registered as a name for several different products.
Or was it on July 25, 1924 when Gustaf Larson and
Assar Gabrielsson met by chance over a plate of crayfish, and after enjoying their meal agreed to start up production of 'The Swedish Car'?
Or was Volvo born on the June day in 1926 when the first prototype cars left Galco's premises in Stockholm.
No, Volvo considers April 14, 1927 as being the date when the company was born.
Turning the corner?
With the inflationary excesses of the 70s behind it, the US economy increased energy demand at a rapid and sustained clip in the stable, low price environment of the 80s and 90s when foreigners were glad to supply nearly all marginal growth in petroleum demand. The sharp tightening in real prices between 1999 and 2006 produced a price spike that looks as though it too should have sent demand tumbling, as happened in the early 80s. But this time the price spike hasn't affected demand. Or hasn't affected it yet. The issue remains open whether very high real petroleum prices may still may cause demand to fall, if for no other reason than the obvious one that that is what price increases are supposed to do. That it remains an open issue so long after the spike should have turned demand down, suggests that other factors are at play, including the Fed's failure to prudently raise interest rates as oil prices rose, the general decline in the intensity relationship between the amount of energy required to produce a new unit of GDP, and the apparent willingness of foreigners to allow the US to float vast amounts of new debt to finance a way of life it can no longer quite afford.
Those other delaying factors will soon have played out, leaving a nagging suspicion that, although slow to arrive, the first leg of the transition away from fossil fuels is going to be a difficult one.
http://www.policypete.com/
Fishmerman surprised with swordfish catch
Growing Energy 7/29/2006 by Jeanne Bernick in Farm Journal, Top Producer, AgDay, and US Farm Report, major farming publications under one ag publishing company, Farm Journal Media.
This is the first of a series of articles under "Growing Energy". I'll bet most farmers see these in one form or another.
The break point has come and gone. The United States now must make an enormously difficult decision. If it simply withdraws forces from Iraq, it leaves the Arabian Peninsula open to Iran and loses all psychological advantage it gained with the invasion of Iraq. If American forces stay in Iraq, it will be as a purely symbolic gesture, without any hope for imposing a solution. If this were 2004, the United States might have the stomach for a massive infusion of forces -- an attempt to force a favorable resolution. But this is 2006, and the moment for that has passed. The United States now has no good choices; its best bet was blown up by Iran. Going to war with Iran is not an option. In Lebanon, we have just seen the value of air campaigns pursued in isolation, and the United States does not have a force capable of occupying and pacifying Iran.
As sometimes happens, obvious conclusions must be drawn.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/montreal/story/2006/08/08/car-firebombed.html
Iran OPEC Gov: OPEC Oil Too Heavy to Make a Difference
Guess the gap is going to be tough to fill.
In reality, I think it's because Lieberman's basically a Republican squatting in the Democratic party.