65 comments on Inflation and oil price shocks
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65 comments on Inflation and oil price shocks
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GAIA Host Collective
There is - euro. There are strong enough economies behind that currency that can accumulate the capital flow. Especially if the EU succeeds in forming energy allience with Russia this will be the best place to put your money in the long term.
I think this is because of the central flaw in the Breton Woods system which requires an international currency and an indebted nation emitting it. The result is a major instability in the world currency markets and of course US hegemony.
"Of course, the US's debts are denominated in dollars. Other nations dumping them lets us buy them back for less than face value, and our problem shrinks (messily, but it shrinks)."
That's why it has not happened yet. But we've seen that already in the 70s - at some critical point the market realises that a currency is overvalued and the fear of loss becomes stronger then the meager attempts of central banks to handle the situation. In short - you can not pull a string forever.
Basicly it is always a good idea to diversify the financial risk and have different assets in your account. Just don't put all the eggs in one basket - you can buy some euro, maybe energy stock, some would also suggest precious metals (though these already overvalued to my mind).
In the short term there is a great probability that you will lose from euro - there is a rising interest rate differential that can cause the dollar to continue to appreciate in the near future. I'd watch the energy situation - if oil gets close or above $100 the risks of sudden dollar depreciation become pretty high. Our energy wastefulness costs the world too much and at some point they can decide to get rid of US demand just by dumping the dollar (maybe systematically and moderately but maybe not).
Eurozone countries will also be tempted to inflate away their debts. Take a look at their
- public debt/GDP ratios,
- budget deficit/GDP ratios,
- prospective dependency ratios (retired vs working folks).
They are as screwed up as the US is, and maybe more, because the US budget deficit was brought about by tax cuts that can just end, and by a war that can also just end (not during this Administration, obviously). But their budget deficits cannot be pinpointed to similar specific and easily reversable (mis)policies: they have not cut taxes or entered any war recently. Rather they are structural, and so more difficult to solve. The difference is that the US debt has been financed mainly by foreigners, so the net gain from inflating it away is greater for the US citizens.By the above measures, Japan is just a very bad joke. So, forget the yen.
OK, what about the Swiss franc? I don't know really what those parameters are for the Swiss economy, and actually don't care, because the case can be dismissed on grounds of volume: if a significant amount of currency reserves are switched to CHFs, that would cause such a CHF overvaluation that would enable the lowest-wage-earning Swiss folks to vacation in five-star resorts anywhere! Which brings the point: using any currency as reserve currency amounts to giving the issuing country a free lunch. They give paper and receive goods.
So we are left with precious metals. BTW, the Bretton Woods system (1944-1971) was a gold standard: the USD was pegged at 35 USD/ounce. And while it worked the US was a net creditor to the rest of the world.
Interestingly, this viewpoint is not just the realm of gold bugs and pseudo-analysts on the fringes. It has just been proposed by one of Morgan Stanley economists, Stephen L Jen. See:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051007-fri.html
"We argue gold is a good hedge, or, more precisely a `neutraliser', against currency risk.
This favours central banks holding more gold in their reserves to dilute their exposure to foreign currencies. First, the USD could falter and thus erode the USD value of the Asian central banks' foreign reserve holdings. Second, the Asian currencies could appreciate leading to a valuation loss on official reserves. Gold holdings could partly `neutralise' or dilute the first risk but can do little about the latter, especially if the country in question has low gold holdings. For the same reasons, petrodollar holders should also consider buying gold."
Interestingly too, the same issue of MS Global Economic Forum features a comment by another of their economists, Robert Alan Feldman, about the prospect of peak oil. It is good to see that not all economists are of the flat-earth variety:
"For policymakers, the oil market presents a classic case of decision under uncertainty. There are two axes to consider. First, either the optimists are right or wrong. Second, either the world invests in technology/exploration, or it does not. So there are four combinations. (1) Optimists right/Few investments: Civilization is safe, with little waste. (2) Optimists right/Big investments: Civilization is safe, but has wasted some resources. (3) Optimists wrong/Few investments: Civilization is NOT safe. (4) Optimists wrong/Big investments: Civilization safe, but not as rich as if oil were unlimited. For a policymaker, it is better to spur the investments, because the worst possible outcome is a bit of waste. This waste can likely be absorbed by economic growth."
Others argue gold, and while I'm also a goldbug, if you have anything close to a decent amount of investment monies it just doesn't make sense. Where are YOU going to keep $200,000 of gold without making yourself a target? It's better for low investors like myself who have a couple of thousand invested, can carry their money in gold easily, and really are less interested in making that money grow as much as just having a safe investment, although that can be argued with gold.
The best money-making, value-secure investment would be in goods. It is obviously a large-scale investment, as it requires investment in warehouses and hard security, but post-collapse, the price of necessities like water and tools will skyrocket, and there will be demand. Further, if you're shrewd, you can always barter for goods that are in low demand in the short-term (construction utilities) but will be heavy demand once we gain our footing again (if we do). Also, goods are extremely cheap right now, with outsourced production. Of course, there's alot of ethical delimas in there, including profiting on life necessities and sending more dollars out of the country.
But, overall, that's where the money will be post-collapse. Just remember, during the gold rushes, it was the merchandisers that struck it rich, not the speculators.