His list of assumptions that deserve to be questioned is excellent and methodical.  Defcon 4, maybe?

It's interesting how rising risk makes capital flee. For example why[1] build a lot of fresh refining capacity if your suppliers are highly doubtful?  The lack of capital makes the whole chain of energy supply more shaky.  Then if you wack it with a bit of mother nature, political insablity, or an economic storm you discover it's not very resilient.

I think all these sources of risk tend to balance out.  No one of them gets to lead the parade; because if one gets in front the others get underfunded until they catch up.

How that for meta-pesimism :-)!

[1] Parenthetically the answer to that is: Because the government[2] covered all our risk.  That seems to be what is happening in the nuclear power industry.

[2] Which happens at least to some extent because the industry in question goes an talks up how it's far to risky for them to even consider doing what's needed without subsidies.

Risk issues are one of the reasons completely free markets are not necessarily the best way to assure supply. Give insurers completely free-rein, and they will insure only low-risks. Hence the government needs to correct shortfalls.

I think the Defcon rating system is cute, but there is a problem applying it to peak oil issues. When the military declares a particular Defcon, they immediately make the preparations necessary to meet that potential challenge. While we are certainly facing risks of Defon (choose a number)-who's preparing? And an optimistic voice like CERA leads us toward less thought and preparation.