Although many of us dismiss CERA, it seems likely that this will be the truth as disseminated by the powers-that-be.  "There is plenty of oil, but X is stopping us from extracting it," or "X is withholding it to drive up the price," or "X is charging too much," etc. "so we must all tighten our belts through this difficult time."

For X insert the Arabs, or the Jews, or the terrorists, or the Democrats, or the environmental whackos, or Hugo Chavez, or Putin, etc.

Good point!  This thought occurred to me after Katrina and Rita since they were "above ground" events.  The scary thing is what this type of thinking can lead to when global production starts declining.  The actions of some actors are already being couched in those terms (China's SPR has been referred to as hoarding, Saudi Arabia has been accused of not investing enough and not having the trained staff to exploit their resources, etc.)

At the same time, those arguments are going to blur the advent of Peak Oil since many people will prefer them over accepting the reality of finite resources.