Thanks, Stuart, for posting this chart and analysis.  The effect on domestic natural gas production is about what I was estimating.  Overall, US domestic gas has been depleting at about 1% per year for the last few.

According to the EIA weekly outlook, "Natural gas in storage as of Friday, September 30, was 2,929 Bcf, which is 1.4 percent above the 5 year average."

However, the injection rate is half what it should be so that everyday we're falling behind in what we need to get through the winter.

Let's hope its a mild one.

If this forecast turns out to be accurate, it isn't good news for heating fuel consumption this winter. The colder than normal areas have high population densities, while most of the warmer than normal areas are relatively empty.
Thank God for global warming