Regarding gasoline statistics at EIA, I am drifting toward the viewpoint that the only number that can be trusted are the stock values.  Why do I say this?  Suppose we define the implied supply as the sum of refinery production and imports.  One would expect this number should have something to do with flow into/out of stocks, and indeed back-testing shows that when this implied supply minus EIA product supplied is about 400 kbbl/d larger than the EIA "product supplied," flow into stocks is neutral.  Smaller than this, there are withdrawls, and larger than this there are stock builds.

Now for the mystery.  The implied supply for the past 4 weeks was actually LARGER than it was for the equivalent period last year by about 80 kbbl/d, and when compared to the EIA product supplied, gives a number of +600 kbbl/d, which should be associated with a stock increase.  However, there was a withdrawl of 2.6 mbbl from stocks. By comparison, last year for the equivalent period this implied supply minus EIA product supplied was +430 kbbl/d, and there was a stock build over the 4 week period of about 1 mbbl of gasoline.

What's going on here?  If the EIA numbers have any connection to reality, there is more gasoline demand out there than is being reported by the EIA, to the tune of at least 200 kbbl/d.  Only time and the gasoline stock numbers will tell...