How appropriate that my first post here on TOD involves hurricanes.  I live in Lake Wales, Florida.  This is where the three hurricanes that hit peninsula Florida last year crossed.  I have the dubious distinction of having had three hurricane eyes pass over my roof.  Needless to say, we here in Central Florida got really good at watching NHC and the Weather Channel.

A couple things worry me about Wilma (other than the fact I live in Florida).  On the three day path projection graph, the cone has a large bulge.  This means the `steering currents' are not that strong.  (Rita did a similar thing when she made landfall).  Until we know where it is headed, it will be difficult to call for evacuations.  These hurricanes have a mind of their own and tend to go where they want.  One trouble with small storms is you can be fine here, and five miles down the road, nothing is left.  If the path is unsure, you need to evacuate everywhere it possibly could strike.

However, on the five day track, it picks up speed and goes rocketing across the state.  This may not be a good thing.  This will carry the high winds further inland and hit structures that are not designed or used to these high winds.  Hurricane Charley did this very thing.  It came ashore a high Cat 3/Low Cat 4, and ripped through the state like a tornado on steroids.  (We were 80 miles down the track and we had winds of 105 mph.  Polk Co. is only required to be designed for 90 mph in the latest building code.)

A fast moving storm also means evacuation times are less.  Wilma seems to be headed towards the Naples area.  The only real northbound evacuation route is I-75.  This is only a four lane facility that clogs up on any given `rush hour' morning.  

It's going to be a long weekend folks.

On Monday morn, i stated that the models were showing already that Wilma would zip over mianmi as a Cat3 on Sunday.  Nothing has changed and the media frenzy of wishful thinking for more chaos remains unfounded, as are the new fears of Florida damage.  Though she set a record as the strongest Atlantic  Hurricane this morn, it is merely part of the process of blowing itself out over the next 24hrs and the chance of continuing as a Cat5 or 4 is almost zilch.  I see the fear component is alive and well in the usa.  
Monday's forecast was incredibly accurate.  Still headed to Miami but will likely be Cat2 strength.