This is the crux of the matter. You think that EOR will accelerate declines and IEA, CERA, et. al. think that recovery rates will increase as a result of applying new technologies. For deepwater, steep declines at the end of the life cycle of the fields are apparently the norm. Will that continue? For other fields, do we know? You have mentioned that you'll post on this, HO, and it's a good idea. This is a big issue and central to the Peak Oil situation and debate. I'd like to know more about it.
I'm working on doing better at this by exhaustive tabulation of past projects (allowing me to calibrate against past production numbers), and better modeling of the production profile of the fields. However, since it's a big job it will take me a while (weeks). Especially if I get as distracted by economics as this last week.