<An update by Chris Skrebowski The Oil Drum Minimal Behavioral Adaptations to Oil Shocks>

29 comments on Why Oil Intensity Changed in the US Economy

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Stuart Staniford on October 21, 2005 - 3:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I guess my point (as I made above) is that oil shocks come in natural units of supply percentage (specifically that of the country involved) and an oil shock would be harder now than before.

You're allowed to argue with me Lou ;-)

I generally agree with EP about the plugin hybrid being the path of least resistance.  I think the only limitation is the fleet turnover rate is not that high, new model turnover rate is not that high, and I think they'll get lower, not higher, in a serious oil shock or post-peak type scenario (when the economy goes is to hell is exactly the time people do not choose to buy a new car.  Instead they lose their job and stay home more).  So I don't think we can do much better than about 4% annual reduction in oil usage that way.  We managed an average 3.2% annual improvement in car fuel economy from 1979 to 1991.

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Engineer-Poet on October 21, 2005 - 8:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is one place where government policy might help.

My preliminary analysis shows that it's possible to build a small electric vehicle (tandem two-seater, Cd=0.3) with a range of 100 miles or more.  Cost should be relatively low; the batteries would cost less than $1000.  If government offered low-interest loans for the purchase of such vehicles and allowed insurance and licensing to be free if combined with an existing non-electric vehicle that would never be used at the same time, people would not have to spend a great deal of money or use any fuel to get to work.  People would be able to afford to take such jobs, and the reduction in oil expenditures might pay for the subsidy.

Something to think about.

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Stuart Staniford on October 21, 2005 - 8:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree in extremis it would take government action of this kind to keep things going.
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Engineer-Poet on October 22, 2005 - 7:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
By substituting domestic electricity for petroleum and boosting manufacturing, such a measure might pay for itself in increased tax revenue.  That's before considering the benefits in reduced pollution, congestion (cycles can ride two abreast in a single lane, effectively doubling capacity), parking...

We may not want to wait.  Encouraging these things now might make a huge amount of sense.

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29 comments on Why Oil Intensity Changed in the US Economy

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