I wonder if people reading here at TOD understand the gravity, the seriousness of the situation if Russia tips over into Type 3 depletion in the next few years. Deservedly, this post is front page news.... And stepping up to the plate will be the much esteemed and beloved Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi....
Long may Allah protect him from his enemies...
اللَّهُ اكْبَرُ، اللَّهُ اكْبَرُ [God Is Great]
Who has the latest data on the Russian production? The numbers from last summer show that Russia is already in decline from the peak of September 2004. When the September 2005 numbers come out we know better. In any case the rapid growth trend of the last years has broken and production is flatter now. The new projects will probably not come fast enough to change this.
The IEA says roughly 9.5 mbpd )an upward trend from the september 2004 peak)

http://omrpublic.iea.org/