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62 comments on Business air travel

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Richard on October 25, 2005 - 12:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
... which will be more than fifty years from now.

Around the time my children go into retirement, so even they won't notice.

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Leanan on October 25, 2005 - 12:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hard to say. I suspect airline travel will become unaffordable for ordinary people long before that. Military aircraft, OTOH, might be around for quite some time.
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PhilRelig on October 25, 2005 - 12:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ah, you raise a VERY interesting question:  The time-frame issue!  Will the demise of mass air-travel take place within something more like five years, or something more like fifty??  Any thoughts, anyone?

[A working definition of "demise of mass air-travel" might be when the point is reached when only the upper-classes can afford to fly on any sort of regular basis; and when those of lesser means are only able to do so at tremendous cost under the most extraordinary of circumstances.]

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Leanan on October 25, 2005 - 12:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
More than 5, less than 50.  ;-)  

I think it's likely to happen before most of the people posting to this blog retire.  The airlines are in a death spiral right now.  It will only get worse as fuel prices rise, the economy falters, and travelers - business and leisure - cut back.

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PhilRelig on October 25, 2005 - 12:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
OK, another question:  Will the downward spiral to a state of demise be gradual to the end, or is some kind of jolting discontinuity foreseeable where all of a sudden the non-upper classes who are accustomed to flying relatively frequently if they wish will no longer be able to do so?
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Leanan on October 25, 2005 - 1:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think it could go either way.  Gradual is probably more likely, but I could see a situation where there's a sudden collapse.  War, resulting in fuel rationing?  An economic crisis, that forces us to choose between bailing out the airlines yet again, or spending on defense, food stamps, social security?  Disabling strikes or other labor unrest?
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62 comments on Business air travel

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