Now the US government knows the truth. Iraq is the only Gulf state where the oil ministry is in the hands of Americans and where they know the real state of affairs. The result: total lack of interest. Even the critics of the war don't like to mention the dismal state of the oil production. The war may take off about 1 mbpd from the world supply - as much as the the hurricanes in GOM. but no one seems to care and complain about the effects on the crude price.

Iraq is a warning sign. From all this we could guess that the real Iraqi reserves are far smaller than officially claimed. The announced new projects were not realistic. It is quite likely that all the Gulf states are in a similiar situation.

But what do these leaks in New York Times and elsewhere mean? There have been some talk about the failure of the national oil companies in boosting supply. The production of all the major private oil companies is decreasing and they would like to get access to the fields of the national companies. Iraq was not a success, but the Iranian crisis is already unfolding.

The reaction to oil supply problems and the perspective of the Peak Oil has so far been invasions (Afghanistand and Iraq), setting up bases (Central Asia and Africa) and covert operations (Venezuela). Only when heavy gasoline taxes are introduced in the US, do I believe in efforts to cut the excessive consumption.