"Now the US government knows the truth. Iraq is the only Gulf state where the oil ministry is in the hands of Americans and where they know the real state of affairs. "

I suspect you're right that reserves are far overstated. There are also rumours that fields have been overproduced and damaged. But I'm betting nobody yet knows the full truth. Nobody told Saddam the truth if it didn't look good, so the historical records will be suspect. As for now, it's pandemonium. No security, nobody who speaks the language, a backlog of ancient equipment. It will be years before a good assessment can be done--if it can ever get done.

It leaves us where we've been all along--a huge problem looming, and no good data to analyze so we can formulate better responses.

Why do you think Saddam took the enormous risk of occupying Kuweit? It is quite likely that the Iraqi government and at leat the experts in their oil ministry had a fairly accurate picture.

But there is, of course, one oil company that is really interested in Iraqi oil - the national Iranian oil company. Thyey already agreed to build a pipeline from Southern Iraqi fields to Iran. They have functioning export terminals for the Iraqi oil. They have troops to protect the structures - the Iranian backed Shiite militias -  and a friendly government to make deals with - the Iranian backed Shiite dominated government in Baghdad and soon in Basra, too. They have their men in the Iraqi oil ministry now. They let Chalabi and friends to tell fairy tales about the huge oil riches in Iraq before the war. Iran fought eight years for the oil fields in Southern Iraq. Now they can access them.

The Iranians have no capacity to make nuclear weapons, but they have a capacity get the oil in Iraq. See what the Gulf states are doing: trying to rob each others oil. This is desperate and tells a lot about the real situation of the ME oil.

"Why do you think Saddam took the enormous risk of occupying Kuweit?"

Because Kuweit was flooding the market, causing a huge price drop hitting badly Iraqi revenues. It is widely known that the Iraq invasion was undertaken with the silent approval of Washington. But after it Bush Sr. decided that it is a good opportunity to establish a military presence of USA in the Persian Gulf and initiated the Gulf War I. Nice play, but at the second episode (now) things became a little bit messier.