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It is my understanding that the USGS assumptions about global reserves were based on an argument the better technology boosted recovery in Texas fields from roughly 25% in in 1970 to 50% in 1995, and the application of the same technology to the rest of the world would similarly boost global reserves. This argument always seemed somewhat flaky to me; clearly the effectiveness of horizontal drilling and water/gas injection won't yeild the same results in differing geology. Also the USGS study seemed to imply that technology would continue to inprove recovery by similar amounts in the future, which is also a dubious argument - surely diminishing returns will stall out ultimate recovery far short of 100%.
In any case, we will see if this "leak" to the press will induce the Saudis to be more forthcoming about the source of these enourmous new reserves that so many cornucopians are counting on.
And if the USGS estimate of 87bbl undiscovered wasn't bad enough, the Saudis upped it to 150bbl, just because everyone knows the USGS estimates are way conservative. This is one of those situations that treads the sometimes fine line between tragedy and comedy.
Jesus wept.
We still a bunch of superstitious apes, ain't we?
I seem to remember that the way they applyed lower 48 reserve growth to the rest of the world drew a lot of criticism of the USGS report.
Operation Mockingbird
Journalism and the CIA: The Mighty Wurlitzer