I was the one on peakoil.com who commented that you listed Upper Zakum as a 650,000 bpd increase even though it is only 200,000 bpd.  I think your report is great.  You've done good research and you have the best tabulation of future projects that I can find.  

Maybe "way too optimistic" is an overstatement, but I say that the decline rates are a little too optimistic.  I agree that oil could peak around 2013, and then rapidly decline because next decade we'll have a much harder time adding new supplies.  You made a good comment in your report when you said, "It appears that the existing reserve base is rapidly being brought into production."  I'm just concerned that despite that, we'll still see a peak much sooner due to higher decline rates than you suggest.  I could give several detailed examples, but I don't want this post to be too long.  

If you were to listen to Simmons, you would not increase Saudi Arabia's production by any amount, not even a million b/d.  Simmons also thinks that Nigeria won't increase by much because declines will almost offset new fields.  On the other hand, one doesn't have to believe Simmons.  You think Nigeria's decline will be 2%, which is small compared to the amount from the new fields.  Therefore, you add 1.25 mb/d to Nigeria's production over the next five years.  

How do you estimate the decline rates?  That is very important.  In some countries, the current decline rate would work well.  For others, won't the declines accelerate?  It seems hard to determine, but I know that you did a lot of hard work to put together your report.